Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for January, 2017
High Clouds will give way to more sunshine today with warmer temps……The Thursday-Friday Storm has turned decidedly wetter for Mono County…..Cloudy but dry weekend still in the Outlook…..But Groundhog’s Day Outlook May have a few surprises for the Snow Weary…..
Monday January 30, 2017
Monday 3:05PM….
I find it interesting that for the past two runs, the European wants to bring in another storm to the Sierra early next week while the GFS is building an even stronger ridge with its 12Z run compared to its 06Z from last night. Took a quick look at the WPC QPF 7 day and noted that the Dweebs back east are giving the Sierra on the west side from Mammoth Mt, about 4 tenths more to the 7 day period after the Thursday-Friday storm, and after a fair weekend. For moisture lovers, Tahoe will fair better with the EURO storm, with about an additional 1-1/2 inches of water added. Not nearly the QPF the EC showed, but a compromise enough that some of the Dweebs back east are at least considering another front while the GFS is going with Beach Weather in Southern CA by Wednesday next week. Go figure…. That’s snow Biz….
Comment: Watch for the flip!
Either model may flip before Punxsutawney Phil goes out to see his shadow at 7:25 AM this Thursday. However, can we really rely on the forecast power that this over grown rat has. That is to predict our weather for the next 6 weeks? No! Because the simple answer is, that the weather is often times the opposite on the west coast as it is in Pennsylvania because of the wave length of the westerlies…… That is why we have to have our own answer to Punxsutawney Phil on the west coast. Mammoth Marmot is it! But do you really think that this large squirrel will attempt to find his way out of the 25 foot snow pack just to see if he can see his shadow this Thursday? Not………..
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No matter what way you look at it, mother nature wants to give Mono County her fair share of precipitation from every storm that hits Northern California this winter….. The guidance has turn decidedly wetter for Southern Mono County, with the Thursday Friday storm. Another Atmospheric River, however, light to moderate, is forecasted to slam Northern California with enough left to bring the Town of Mammoth between 1 and 2 feet of new snowfall and up to 3 feet over the crest. Unusually, the GFS has out done the European Model this year. Those forecasters including myself that put more emphasis on the Euro model, keep playing catch up with the rest of the guidance for storms in the future. Note: Snow levels may rise to between 7500 to 8,000 for a time Thursday, so amounts may be slightly less in town.
This storm is slowing a bit and wont really get in here until Thursday morning with Thursday afternoon into Friday morning the “IOP” for Forecasters.
The Following weekend is still expected to be dry. However, cloudy and breezy over the upper elevations as another system pushes in to the north of us.
Just a heads up, the trend of the Global forecast system (GFS) continues to retrograde the Bering Sea Block westward next weekend for a storm track trending North.
However, the EURO which I just bashed, delays the westward movement of the Block by a few days and allows another system to effect Mono County early the following week. At the present time, this extension of time by the European Model is not supported by the GFS system, so we”ll have to wait until about Ground Hogs Day Thursday, to see if the GFS continues its consistency or flips to the ECMWF.
The Dweeber….
Welcomed Break in the Weather continues with Strong High Pressure Aloft over the weekend….Another Signifacant Storm will make its way into California this Wednesday with heavy snowfall expected Thursday….The following weekend looks dry and beyond…..
Friday January 27, 2017
Sunday AM:
The ECMWF and GFS 12Z runs are closer this more with their height field. Both are very similar with their QPF for the Thursday night/Friday Night system. The storm is still looking like a moderate snowfall producer with between 2 and 2.5 inches of water over the crest and roughly 1/2 in town.
So at 10:1 about two feet or a little more over the crest accounting for slightly higher snow to water ratios.
This looks to bring about 8 and 12 inches in town possibly a little more west of the Village.
I will update my weather letter tonight for Monday AM……
The Dweeber………….:-)
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SATURDAY 5:50 AM:
Update is in reference to changing hemispheric pattern:
The overnight ECMWF guidance is trending quicker with the retrogression of the AK/Bering Sea block. This will have the effect of both pushing the Thursday/Friday system’s QPF Bull’s-Eye further north to Northern California, and weakening this system for the Central California area faster. This storm’s QPF is looking to be more of a 1 to 2 footer with the latter amount over the crest. So more in the moderate category than the stronger storm the models showed Thursday night. This is certainly good news for the high country and those that are more concerned about snow storage. Longer Range still favors long wave ridge setting up over Eastern Pacific for longer term dry spell.
More Later…….
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)
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At least for the next 4 to 5 days our break in the weather is likely to continue….High temps this weekend will be in the 40s while lows at night are likely to rise into the teens….
No important winds are expected this weekend other than some easterly breezes over the ridge tops.
The latest extended guidance continues the trend of building another Upper high and blocking pattern over the Bering Sea and AK later next week. This block is just one of several that the Dweebs have seen since October. The Block will allow a strong short wave to undercut the block and progress into California Thursday and Friday next week. This is a fairly strong storm now. However, nothing compared to the “Leo Storm” last weekend. The new storm will be associated with a deepening surface low bombing out at 983MB according to the GFS, Wednesday night west of Eureka, CA. No doubt there will be some strong winds over the upper elevations Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by heavy snowfall Thursday into Friday. The surface low has the effect of slowing down the storm for greater snowfall amounts in the sierra. At the moment this looks to be between 18 and 24 inches in town and between two to three feet over Mammoth Mt, over a 36 to 48 hour period. The *IOP is progged to be 4:00AM Thursday to 4:00Am Friday.
*Intensive operational period for forecasters.
Longer Range:
Just as quick as the block sets up over AK and the Bering Sea…It retrogrades west to Siberia into the following week. This is great news in that will shift the upper jet into the {Pacific NW) along with the hose as well. Some of the models bring in a wave through the ridge around the 8th. But that should be a much weakened weather system over Central CA and would be more active well to the north of Mammoth Lakes…Or it may not make it at all!
Dr Howard and the dweebs…………………….:-)
SNOW SHOVELERS WANTED…. Lots of work in town……Some light finally at the end of the tunnel indicating that after this next upcoming storm…A longer break seems possible into February if these trends continue…………
Wednesday January 25, 2017
Thursday PM Update:
IT’S All ABOUT THE BLOCK!
In Early Star Wars Movies Luke was told to Search his feelings in regards to the Force.
Today as an amateur weather forecaster, as I look around at all the snow in Mammoth Lakes, in searching my feelings, I have to say that I prefer that mother nature shut it off for several weeks! And…..see mid winter temps in the 50s instead of the 20s so we can get some melt! We lack snow storage; and if we were to get another 4 to 6 feet of snow in town, it might be doubt full that anyone down south would be able to enjoy it! Why? Because of no were to put the snow and nowhere to park and other major complication’s that might be unforeseen….
Update on the Models….
Trying to be as objective as one can….I have to say that after looking at this mornings 12Z Thursday GFS run, the certainty of the negative phase WPO/EPO becoming positive after the following weekend, thereby allowing retrogression of the block west to Siberia is not as certain this morning as it was yesterday or last night. If this block does not retrograde….we may have a problem….The Ensembles, a collection of deterministic runs, will tell the story over the next 5 days.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..
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As of 3:30PM Wednesday, the trend continues of the retrograding closed anti cyclone to Siberia the next weekend, thereby allowing heights to rise along the west coast week 2.
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Just when snow storage is maxed out and although the next storm is likely to bring more snowfall the middle of next week….Some light is showing up in the longer term….
The biggest factor in shifting the upper jet to the north is the big blocking high that is expected to rapidly set up again over AK and the Bering Sea. This is forecasted by both EC and GFS to shift rapidly west, past the dateline by the following weekend. Two of the 3 global models show that. The only outliner was the Canadian Model from last night which leaves the block in place a while longer.
A shift of the block to the west will send the storm track back up into the pacific NW for an extended period….
These are new trends….Need more time for confidence building……
Stay tuned for updates….
The Dweeber………………:-)
