Sunday AM:

The ECMWF and GFS 12Z runs are closer this more with their height field.  Both are very similar with their QPF for the Thursday night/Friday Night system. The storm is still looking like a moderate snowfall producer with between 2 and 2.5 inches of water over the crest and roughly 1/2 in town.

So at 10:1 about two feet or a little more over the crest accounting for slightly higher snow to water ratios.

This looks to bring about 8 and 12 inches in town possibly a little more west of the Village.

I will update my weather letter tonight for Monday AM……


The Dweeber………….:-)




Update is in reference to changing hemispheric pattern:

The overnight ECMWF guidance is trending quicker with the retrogression of the AK/Bering Sea block. This will have the effect of both pushing the Thursday/Friday system’s QPF Bull’s-Eye further north to Northern California, and weakening this system for the Central California area faster. This storm’s QPF is looking to be more of a 1 to 2 footer with the latter amount over the crest. So more in the moderate category than the stronger storm the models showed Thursday night. This is certainly good news for the high country and those that are more concerned about snow storage.  Longer Range still favors long wave ridge setting up over Eastern Pacific for longer term dry spell.

More Later…….


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………:-)




At least for the next 4 to 5 days our break in the weather is likely to continue….High temps this weekend will be in the 40s while lows at night are likely to rise into the teens….

No important winds are expected this weekend other than some easterly breezes over the ridge tops.

The latest extended guidance continues the trend of building another Upper high and blocking pattern over the Bering Sea and AK later next week. This block is just one of several that the Dweebs have seen since October.  The Block will allow a strong short wave to undercut the block and progress into California Thursday and Friday next week. This is a fairly strong storm now. However, nothing compared to the “Leo Storm” last weekend. The new storm will be associated with a deepening surface low bombing out at 983MB according to the GFS, Wednesday night west of Eureka, CA.  No doubt there will be some strong winds over the upper elevations Wednesday and Wednesday night followed by heavy snowfall Thursday into Friday. The surface low has the effect of slowing down the storm for greater snowfall amounts in the sierra.  At the moment this looks to be between 18 and 24 inches in town and between two to three feet over Mammoth Mt, over a 36 to 48 hour period. The *IOP is progged to be 4:00AM Thursday to 4:00Am Friday.

*Intensive operational period for forecasters.


Longer Range:

Just as quick as the block sets up over AK and the Bering Sea…It retrogrades west to Siberia into the following week. This is great news in that will shift the upper jet into the {Pacific NW) along with the hose as well. Some of the models bring in a wave through the ridge around the 8th. But that should be a much weakened weather system over Central CA and would be more active well to the north of Mammoth Lakes…Or it may not make it at all!


Dr Howard and the dweebs…………………….:-)