Monday AM:

Nice break in the weather for the first 2 days of the week. Time to create snow storage for the next storm cycle that will begin this Wednesday. The next series of storms will be much colder and should for the most part be all snow for the Town of Mammoth except for the very beginning Wednesday afternoon. The freezing level drops quickly late in the day Wednesday. Best estimate for snowfall for the Town of Mammoth will be 3 to 6 inches by Thursday morning so this will be a smaller system snowfall wise, with up to a foot on Mammoth Mt. The following storm will be colder and could bring 5 to 10 inches by between Friday AM and Saturday AM with up to 18 inches on Mammoth Mt. by Saturday AM. Saturday looks Showery in the morning with improving weather in the afternoon into Saturday night. The last in the series of storms will move in Sunday afternoon. The Sunday thru early Tuesday AM storm is a bigger storm that will be slower in moving. However, its main thrust might be Southern CA where some 4 inch amounts of rain may fall in their local foothills. This is expected to be between Sunday PM and Tuesday. For Mammoth, I expect a foot or two in town and possibly as much as 3+ feet on Mammoth Mt. So totals from the next storm cycle looks to be between 5 and 6+ feet on Mammoth Mt between this Wednesday and the following Tuesday. Thereafter, I expect a long break….possibly until the next storm cycle begins sometime during the 1st week of February…

 

 

 

—————————————

Lots of out-of-town folks and Locals alike are wondering why so much precipitation in a non El Nino year?  The records show that the biggest precipitation and flooding events in California occur during weak La Nina’s such as this one. Although most seasonal forecaster’s stayed away from this winters forecast, especially after being burned on last years El Nino precipitation bust! There were a few including the Dweebs that did indicate on more than one occasion, in this blog,  that we would have several Atmospheric River events this winter.  I will do the research and post the dates in this blog later.

Here are my posts that mention or discuss the possibilities of recurring “AR” (Atmospheric River) events for the upcoming winter.

Posts:

  1. September 26 to the 28th
  2. October 4th
  3. November 28th
  4. December 13th

All of these discuss the possibilities of Atmospheric Rivers redeveloping during the winter due to Blocking over, either Alaska or the Bering Sea.

II.  My forecast indicates that there will be weak impulse that drops south tomorrow Sunday and will be out of the area by Monday MLK Jr Day.  It is likely to bring some flurries or light snow showers, but nothing really measurable. The next series of storms hits Wednesday evening with a weakening “AR”. There will be at least one, possibly two systems following it.

Between Wednesday night and the following Tuesday, we should break the 20 inches that is upholding the January record up on Mammoth Mt. There is likely to be several more feet of snowfall but nothing like what we just went through….  One more thing….”At this time” it appears that there will be some nice but cold weather next weekend. IE Break between storms…(Subject to change)

 

I will have more detail in my “Weather Letter” released earlier this time Sunday…. With a follow-up Monday AM.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)