OCT 30th….

Update later today on the weekend storm and beyond……:-)


October 26th:

Very strong Blocking signature still evident in both -EPO and -WPO teleconnection, Especially the -EPO. This is profound!
Main Message is still for the possibility of a storm cycle beginning during at some point the first week of November…..
Global models struggling but ensembles beginning to show a better picture….Best Odds of a significant storm as indicated in my discussion on the 24th below, the weekend after Halloween.

October 24th Update:

Note: Many of Last years weather letter subscriber’s have contacted me about subscribing to the weather letter again this year. Although I really appreciated the compensation that it gave my partner Ted and I during the greatest winter for Precipitation in over 100 years, I have decided to revert to the Dr. Howard and the Dweebs report for free once again! I found that the timing of the reports were too confining. When weather changes occur, I want my followers to know immediately, not have to wait until the next report which could be days away! I also do not want to update daily if I choose not to. If in the future, this is something that can be modified, the weather letter will resume, “Web Based”. Until then, it is free for all to enjoy, as much as I enjoy writing it! 🙂

Medium and longer range forecasts and outlooks are working out well this morning as the MJO’s upper divergent and upper convergent envelope continues progressive and “strong”!! The Key with the MJO in the Western Pacific as it relates to west coast weather is whether the typhoons spawned, constructively phase or destructively phase with the westerlies. (“PS” Thanks Tom C for the excellent lessons on this subject over the many years) 🙂

We are now experiencing the results of the destructive phasing and corresponding enhanced upper jet several days ago contributing to California’s record breaking late October heat wave. Expect 100s in LA today and highs near 90 in Bishop CA. 90 degrees is the record high for Bishop for this date set back in 1959. Tomorrow, should 90 occur, would tie a 90 degree high so late in the year as there has never been a 90 high in Bishop, Ca beginning the 26th of October.

Looking forward:

The +PNA pattern set up is locked in this week. So you all better enjoy it! Take that trek up to Shadow Lake, Lake Ediza or even Iceberg Lake in one day if your up to it!
The MJO is on the MOVE. It is strong and forecasted to cross phase spaces 8/1 in the RIMM. The EC is pretty weak with it in that area and the GFS is much stronger. The Dweebs believe a blend of the two is most likely the scenario. What is fun to watch is that fact that the models rarely pick up on the expected changes in the pattern until later in the game. The GFS as of this morning is starting to pick up on the retrogression the Dweebs were chatting about back on the 19th of October. (See discussion below). Retrogression of the long wave features is clearly in the picture for the Eastern Pacific next week…..In fact a significant Rain/snow producing storm is possible by about the weekend after Halloween. On another note, the pattern change is associated with the negative phase of both the EPO and WPO, and so an “AR” event is certainly possible as well. Soon other Weather Weenies will begin to tout about the change in their personal discussion’s! 😉

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………….:-)