(Get ready for the storm that will not die)

Amounts over a 6 day period beginning Tuesday will range from 2 to 5 feet. The storm will begin on the warm side but will chill through the week….

This is a series of waves attached to a mother low that will park off the coast next week.

Still keeping the faith for a miracle March!   (176 total inches)



Thursday AM:

The Subtropical jet is dominating the WX pattern with periods of gusty winds and unsettled weather. This is expected through Sunday. Although snowfall in the Town of Mammoth will not be heavy, there may be 3 to 5 inches of snow with some 6 to 12 inches over the sierra crest between Saturday afternoon and noon Sunday. The snowfall will be heavier and more moisture leaden than recent storms.

The mid-week storm is still looking good with both subtropical and polar jets being coupled. I expect several feet of snow during the second half of next week. Although there are still several storm’s in the picture this month, the 15 Day ECMWF EPS shows up to 7 inches of water or an average of 70 inches of snow by 23rd. We will need quite a bit more to get close to the 176 inches so not looking all that promising but still possible.  The good news is that the bulls-Eye for the 15 days is over the Northern part of the Southern Sierra……


The Dweeber……………………..:-)


Wednesday PM:


Here is the latest QPF update for the next 10 days from the Deterministic models for the area around or just west of the Mammoth Crest:


GFS:       5 inches  10:1   50 inches of snow

ECMWF: 7 inches  10:1  70 inches of snow


PS: The official snow total at the main lodge from the weekend storm was 50.5 inches.

So 125.5 more inches of snow to tie the miracle march of 1991. That may be tough…we need at least 2.5 more storms like last weekends to get close or more smaller storms!


Tuesday Afternoon:

ECMWF (European Model) Coming in pretty wet now for the Monday night-Friday storm next week.  QPF suggests 6 to 7 inches of precip…..or 5 to 6 feet over the crest by Friday the 16th.  Again, the Trof and its associated polar jet to become confluent with subtropical jet and its environment Monday night, then on and off through Friday. Should make for some explosive Jet O’ Genesis!  Yes..this is another slow-moving developing pattern.  This system is not as cold as last-weekends storm but may finish some what cold…  The Dweebs still think the Miracle March is possible…. Need 176 inches at Main Lodge in March to tie it….


Mammoth will enjoy a few days of spring like temps with highs well into the 40s today and Wednesday. As the upper ridge pushes east, subtropical high level cloudiness will overcast our skies Tuesday night and Wednesday. The next few systems this week look weaker now with only some light snow showers expected Thursday evening. Temperatures will cool this weekend back into the 40s and there will be windy periods over the Sierra Crest.  Snow showers are possible Friday through Saturday with the most organized system heading more north now and weaker at that. Expect anywhere between 3 and 6 inches of snow top to bottom through Sunday night with 1 to 3 inches in town.

Next storm will be early next week and it still looks strong with the possibility of footage in the high country. Some of the new model solutions tend to phase both subtropical and polar jets together by Mid-Week.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)