Latest guidance favors the European Model which has the most consistent ensemble members and thus “Trumps” the GFS. (No pun intended)  The Wednesday night system looks pretty windy, with the potential for light to moderate precipitation.   There is another system out there for next Monday. Again the Euro seems to be handling the upper flow better with a slower approach and with better climatology showing a closed low associated with it. The Euro has another closed low system in back of it for the middle of next week as well.


Monday AM the 9th:

The Dweebs Monday morning outlook is prefaced by the fact that we are approaching mid April now. Weather systems tend to move slower, become cut off from the westerlies at times and in general, model accuracy becomes ever more diminished with every calendar week ahead. The idea of trying estimate snowfall and rainfall amounts on a time scale of a week in the winter is much easier than at this time.  So as a result, more general outlooks for precip a week ahead will be issued and much subject to change.

We are currently in pattern that is highlighted by a series of smaller scale systems this week and next, that for the most part will bring lots wind at times;  little or no precip to generally light to moderate amounts of snowfall.  Light precip is defined as being 1 to 6 inches and moderate 6 to 18 inches of snow.  These are systems that have a fair amount of cold air.  The focus this week will be windy weather Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon and night.  The Wednesday night into Thursday morning system holds the best chance for snowfall. The new 12Z Monday GFS has up to 1.2 inches on the west side of the Sierra, while last nights ECMWF had about 1/2 of that.  Best guess at this time is about 6 to 10 inches over the upper elevations by Thursday PM.

There will be periods of large swings of cooling and warming between weather systems. As a result, some of these weather systems will have strong thermal gradients and strong winds at times.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)


The new week will offer a mixed bag of weather as the pattern remains progressive with a series of ridges and troughs migrating through the west coast. And typical for spring, some of these systems will bring windy weather over the upper elevations. A NW jet over the weekend will keep the upper elevations quite breezy as well…..Then a possibly stronger storm the following Sunday night into week 2. Overnight lows have now returned to below freezing and highs will wildly swing from the 60s to the 30s then 50s later this week.


Over all typical Spring April weather.  The mid-week storm may bring between 2 and 6 inches of snowfall


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….:-)