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Archive for November, 2018
Mammoth Mountain Reports 3 to 5 feet of fresh snowfall bottom to top….With another 4 to 7 inches possible tonight and Saturday…Then a nice break Sunday into next week…Only Light to Possibly Moderate snowfall expected next Tuesday and Wednesday…
Friday November 30, 2018
No surprises this morning…
Warm air advection precipitation to began around midnight tonight. CRFC gives the west side about .5 to .6 of an inch of QPF over the next 3.5 days. Amounts on Mammoth Mt look to be less than a foot with the town possibly between 2 and 5 inches over a 3.5 day period.
Remember this storm never really comes into CA. The cold dynamic portion remains off shore. However, there may be a bit of upper divergence over the sierra from the upper low before it fully opens into a wave.
The update on the longer range outlook shows a storm a week away that may split and bring mainly moderate amounts of snowfall beginning Monday Night into Wednesday. More later on this system, later this week..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….:-)
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Sunday AM !1:10am
Good morning everyone. It was definitely a bluebird morning as although I did not see any blue birds, the skies were so blue and bright, you had to use sunglasses from being blinded. The lighting in December is extra special with the sun arching across the sky so low this time of the year.
The forecast models show the next weather system following a similar tract that it did with earlier runs. Here is the main point I want to make about this storm. The upper low never comes into California. So there is no real dynamic forcing with the cold air at its back. It is all warm air advection. What does this mean? Precipitation to a major extent will be developing because of the cold air that was left from Saturdays storm and from the mid level moisture moving up and over that cold air. There is no real terrain enhanced orographics from the sierra either. However, there is one other lifting feature and that is limited surface convergence/deformation before the upper low opens into a trof. As indicated yesterday, this is going to be mainly a west side event with light to moderate snowfall at most over the sierra crest. I have seen storms like this bring nothing to the town or just a few inches and sometimes up to a foot over the top. So, whatever we get is not going to be major amounts and do not be disappointed if we do not get much at all.
I will have another look at it Monday late morning…
The storm you are waiting for will be the storm for the 10th…That will possibly dump a good foot or two.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
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Snowfall tallies look a bit shy on Mammoth Mt as the Snow plot at the Main Lodge showed 6.5 inches. The Dweebs estimate the mountain received 6.5 inches at the Main Lodge and 10 inches on top. The actual snowfall report will be provided by Mammoth Mt in the morning. Here at Mammoth Weather, I picked up between 4 and 5 inches.
The next upstream system for Tuesday and Wednesday seems to wants to hang on a bit longer to the north, before heading south into Northern Baja. If this trend continues, we are going to get more snow out of this next storm than reported yesterday. I am going to wait another day and report tomorrow afternoon.
Otherwise the next Major Storm according to both the GFS and ECMWF looks to begin about Sunday night the 9th. It looks potentially to be a 1 to 2 day storm. Although the ECMWF has a couple smaller storms later that week, there is the potential for a significant “AR” around the 15th.
The Dweeber…………………..:-)
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After 3.5hr Shoulder replacement surgery Thursday Morning at Mammoth Hospital, The Dweebs did not want disappoint the wonderful Docs, Nurses and physical therapist’s, that took great care of me the past 36 hours, and so I am here, but reports will be abbreviated.
Thursday storm’s arrival was bit late, however it dropped pretty much what was expected on Mammoth Mt, 3 to 5 feet bottom to top.. Amounts reported in town ranged from 18 inches up to 2.5 feet. It was the best Pre Christmas gift that the Mountain could have asked for….And yes, there is more coming…..Smaller systems, with poor upper jet support…But better storms down the road.
The upper jet with Saturdays system will create much more shadowing, so the town will likely get less than what you would expect as compared to Mammoth Mountain.
Additionally, Saturdays system will be a WNW slider in which the Northern Sierra will do better precip wise than Southern Mono County. Nevertheless, because of the forecasted cold temps at 700MB, it will be all quality no matter how much we get. There is another system headed for Northern Baja Tuesday-Wednesday. Mammoths best shot will be Tuesday into Wednesday as it nears the coast before it dives south. For Mono County, Once again, the west side of the sierra will do much better than the east side. Mammoth Mt may pick up some 5 to 8+ inches over the crest. However, again it does not look like much of a plow for the town…..2 to 5 inches?
Southern CA well get a decent shot of precip with most of the heavier precip remaining just off shore….Although the trend in 00z Saturdays run European model is to push heavier amounts into the coastal areas near Malibu after midnight Wednesday night. South facing coastal mountain near Malibu will have best orographic lift in the southerly flow.
More later when the guidance in the shorter time frame range should have better clarity…..Will update Sunday…..
The Dweeber………………….:-)
Series of Storm Systems to affect the high county through weeks end….Each storm will be colder than its predecessor….Then a welcome break next week…..
Tuesday November 27, 2018
1:50PM 11/28/2018
In that the Dweebs will not be updating for a few days or longer, it is noteworthy to let you know that;
- The Wednesday Through Friday storm is expected top bring storm totals of some 4 to 5 feet by Friday AM on Mammoth Mt. There should be a break Friday afternoon in the snowfall.
- The late Friday night, Saturday’s storm is not going to be a big precip producer. However, it will be all quality snow with high Snow to Water ratios because of how cold 700MB temps are going to get. There is still the chance that somewhere between 6 and 12 inches that may fall on Mammoth Mtn.
- Snow showers will linger for a while
- Next Weather system is the mid-week storm. I am staying with the European at the moment as it has been the most consistent. The 12Z GFS threw a curve ball in developing the Southern CA storm off the coast of Northern CA Tuesday, Then bringing it southward with yet another cold short wave Wednesday into Thursday; the Euro is consistent in bringing in a storm that split off from the westerlies well up into the Gulf of AK then drops south to off the Southern Coast Wednesday. The storm favors Southern CA and Baja. However to its north, the Owens valley may benefit from its south-easterly flow and the Southern and Mammoth benefiting from some light to possibly moderate snow as well. Well see what the GFS does with that storm later this afternoon. ((UPDATE)) 4:30PM shows the GFS flipped back to their earlier thinking and is consistent with the ECMWF. This is once again mainly a Southern CA to somewhat Central CA storm. Concerns revolve around the placement of the upper Low as there is going to be some heavy rain potential with it. Concerns are in regards to it effect upon recent burn scars, especially in the Malibu Area Wednesday. At the moment, the current model run of the gfs 18Z Wed, keeps the heaviest rains off shore but that may change.
Beyond Mid week….The Storm door remains open for large snow bearing storms to bring heavy amounts of snowfall to Mammoth Lakes by the end of that week..then well into the 2nd week of December… In fact the European models this morning showed a possible “AR” in the making about the 11th of December. As always….Forecast models are never perfect…just forgiven….:-)
The Dweeber…………..:-)
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Residents throughout Mono County will be getting ready for the latest on slot of storms here in the high country, when once finished, may bring up to 2.5 feet of snow to the Town and some 4 to 5 feet over the crest by Friday. Another but colder storm Saturday morning may bring our first quasi platinum powder conditions with the chance of some 6 to 12 inches of snow over the mountain at 13:1 or 14:1. Although the long-range weather progs bring only very small chances of additional snowfall to the high country next week, the hemispheric pattern remains mostly progressive which means that any ridging off the west coast will be temporary, allowing more storms to move in the following week….week 3.
Details;
The upper flow over the eastern pacific this morning is a beautiful sight! Beautiful in the way on how consolidated it is from 45N to 32N all the way west to north of Hawaii. This distance of fetch really can pick up a lot of moisture and storm momentum as it hits California. Within the flow are some very exciting features such as small ARs and most of all, as closed surface cyclone that spins up as it moves in, just north of the Bay Area mid morning Thursday. Mid level flow for moisture transport is very good Thursday through Sunrise Friday AM. Thus, we are in for a protracted period of moderate to heavy snowfall beginning Later Wednesday night through Friday AM… IE; 06Z Thursday through 14Z Friday. (30 to 32 hours!) So it is easy to see that snowfall amounts in town could easily top 2 feet by Friday AM, then another 6 to 12 inches by Sunday; Over the top of Mammoth Mt. between today Tuesday and Friday AM. some 3 to 4 feet, Then another colder storm with snow to water ratios between 13:1 to 15:1 so another additional foot+ is possible over Mammoth Mt. There is also the chance of some light snow in bishop Saturday/Ngt.
We are really getting set up for the Christmas Holiday. If you have been waiting to book for the Christmas holidays…better do it now as the cat will soon be out of the bag!
Longer Range:
The main point here is that the Dweebs do not see long-term cold blocking in the east, The pattern is expected to remain in the longer term “progressive”. This means that although we may have an upcoming week like next week where by some cold trofs develop in the mid west and shift east, the cold trofing is progressive and gets flushed out off out over the Atlantic, keeping the wave length open. This in turn keeps west coast ridging slowly progressive as well. Next week is a good example. This cold system that leaves the sierra early next week progresses east and upper ridging follows for CA. We will have some fair days, especially Monday into possibly Tuesday but it will be cold to begin with. Of note, the ECMWF is dry for us next week, all the way to the following weekend so that is a possibility too. The GFS model shows a split storm track that favors Southern CA and Northern Baja. There is the possibility that we may get a little light precip mid-week from that system but most will be on the west side. Odds are, the Northern Sierra will be dry. The upshot is, even if the GFS is correct, anything we get would be light. I expect a healthy belt of westerlies to return the week following, beginning as early as the 10th of DEC.
Climate:
Webinar Conference with CPC indicated that there are significant doubts now if EL Nino will reach moderate threshold. Says Pacific Basin Warming needs further westerly wind bursts.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)
Major Storm developing by Mid Week with Subtropical Connection….Heavy snowfall and strong winds over higher elevations with Colder Portion of Storm expected Thursday….Several feet of new is expected over Mamoth Mountain by Next Weekend Then….???
Sunday November 25, 2018
After a break in the storminess Saturday, Sunday on into Monday, winds will increase again Tuesday with light precipitation developing as early as Tuesday mid day. There appears to be a weak AR that becomes quasi stationary early Tuesday evening and possibly stall through Wednesday over the Central Sierra. So the High country remains in the warm sector Tuesday afternoon, through much of Wednesday. It is not a wide swath and not a particularly wet one. However, it just appears to stall in the vicinity of Central California. This was in both 18z, 00z and now 12z Monday’s GFS runs. The upcoming pattern is an interesting one in that it has a very good moisture tap and is accompanied by a surface wave that spins up into a closed cyclone, in the sweet spot, west of Pt Area. If I had ordered it myself I would not have changed its location much for Mammoth Lakes. With the snow and the freezing level falling Wednesday and Wednesday night, the snow that will be falling on Mammoth Mt Tuesday and Tuesday night will change from rain to snow in the Towns of Mammoth and June Lake, during the day Wednesday. The “IOP” with this storm will be Wednesday night into Thursday. Amounts in the Town of Mammoth may tally between 1 and 2 feet by Friday AM at 8000 feet…..3 to 4 feet on Mammoth Mt over the crest.
There is another storm for the weekend that is colder with 1000-500MB thicknesses south of 540DM by Saturday Morning. The new 12Z Monday GFS is more bullish and a bit quicker with it. This storm may prove to put a lid on our high temps Saturday into the 20s with snow showers possible even in the Owens Valley, Saturday morning, especially western sections near the sierra foothills….it will be cold and breezy!
Longer Range:
The differences in the global models are more profound during the week two period. The ECMWF wants to fill the Midwest and eventually east with Arctic Air. That will tend to weaken storms moving into the west coast or cut them off all together. The main differences considering weeks 2 and 3, are in how fast the cold air moves out. The GFS is much more progressive than the ECMWF and so it flushes out the cold quicker, while the EC takes more time. What may end up is a more southerly but weaker storm track that favors Southern CA more… week two. By week 3, “Mid-December, the storm track should favor the west coast once again and on into Christmas.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
