4:00PM  Update


Storm has slowed a bit with WSW now set for 6:00PM through 6:00AM Thursday

Via NWS; Moderate to occasionally heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 14 inches above 7000 feet, highest west of
Highway 395. Up to 4 inches is possible between 6000 and 7000 feet, with little or no snow below 6000 feet.

Mammoth Crest 18 inches+

Still looking a small storm with light snowfall and windy conditions Friday/night



Quick update:

No changes to the forecast. Timing still looks good. See the NWS Winter Storm Watch in the hyper-link below. The forecasted storm totals show 4 to 8 inches in the Town of Mammoth with up to a foot near the Village and Canyon Lodge.  Amounts over the Upper Mountain by Thanksgiving Day may equal 18 inches or more.  The next weather system for Friday Through Saturday morning favors the Northern Sierra. It is a windier storm with light amounts of snowfall expected over Mammoth Mt.  (Up to 5 inches) 1 to 3 inches in town. The snow level will rise through the storm until Late Friday night when the freezing level falls briefly then rises again between Saturday afternoon and Sunday. This is a storm with warm air advection. Not your typical cold front. Highlights are wind and light precip.

The Dweebs are watching the next WX system for near the end of the month. There may “Possibly” be an AR with that system. Stay Tuned!!!! The American operational 12Z GFS had an 180 knot westerly Jet at 250MB with its axis W/E across Northern Central California.  I am not jumping on this one yet as the ECMWF is not in agreement at this time. This mornings GFS model run would certainly be WINDY,  Wednesday afternoon the 28th through Friday afternoon!!  If this model verified, this could be one of those Crowley Lake Wind Events.  Those that have lived there long term, know what I mean….  So again this “is not” a forecast…Just something to keep our eyes on!!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)



NOTE: From the Yosemite NPS;

Tioga and Glacier Point Roads will close at 6 pm on Tuesday, November 20.  Tioga and Glacier Point Roads will close at 6 pm on Tuesday, November 20. The Tioga and Glacier Point Roads will close to all vehicular traffic beginning at 6 pm on Tuesday, November 20, 2018 due to incoming winter weather. The roads will reopen as weather and road conditions permit. This is not necessarily a seasonal closure.


By far the best weather system to begin the Winter Season here in the high country will move into Southern Mono County later Wednesday Afternoon with snow levels rising to 6500 as winds mix out valley inversions of cold air.  However, snowfall will begin earlier on the west side resulting in pass closures well before that time. For those that this is important to, be sure to check with Caltrans Tuesday before departing and remember that Caltrans may close the passes earlier than expected. I have had to make that long trip north on highway 49 to highway 50 after being disappointed by an early pass closer……:-(

Both today and tomorrow Tuesday will be fair days with variable high clouds and highs in the upper 40s. Winds will pick up over the upper elevations early Wednesday morning with increasing clouds and snowfall in the high country during the day Wednesday. The heavier snowfall is likely to begin after 6:00PM with moderate snowfall all night under good UVM. The first wave will be through about 5:00AM Turkey day with another UVM max around 10:00AM. So periods of moderate snowfall are likely through about 12:00PM Thursday. Lighter snowfall will continue the rest of the afternoon. There is another short wave on Friday that is not nearly as impressive as Wednesday nights storm. The snow level will rise with that system up to about 7500 feet. There is a small AR with it that will mainly affect the west side of the sierra and so the sierra crest may do much better than areas to its east. Nevertheless, some 2 to 6+ inches is possible with that system.  The thinking this morning is that the upper mountain is still in for about 18 to 24 inches by weeks end. The Town of Mammoth 6 to 10 inches. The Dweebs will update the QPF Wednesday AM when the HRRR 3K is out.

For the Travelers heading to the high country….There is likely to be Chain Controls at some point Wednesday night so plan accordingly. Sunday appears to be a good travel day on your return….. High temperatures in Mammoth for the holiday and weekend will range in the 30s and low 40s with lows in the teens and 20s.

Have a Great Thanksgiving holiday weekend!!!!