Wednesday AM:

There were phasing issues with the 12z run of the GFS…..Waiting for the ECMWF this afternoon.

Still too soon to predict how much snow in the high country for the following weekend..


3:00 PM Tuesday the 13th

It is really exciting to see everything coming together nicely in the ensembles…..The pattern looks like it will deliver at least two weather systems for the Central Sierra over the Thanksgiving holiday and weekend. Although the 15 day precip amounts suggest a couple of feet over the crest, amounts will change from run to run and day to day.

More than anything else, it is the trend at this perspective in time that is exciting….:-)



Another dry week is expected this week. Temperatures will remain in the 50s for highs, while nights at resort levels will stay in the upper teens and 20s.  The forecast progs show our upper ridge now pushing into California and weakening. This is allowing high cloudiness to move into our area. The Dweebs expect variable amounts of high clouds through Friday.  By the weekend the northern portion of the ridge redevelops off the coast of the pacific NW while a weak branch of the westerlies develops off shore into much of the southern 2/3s of our state.. This I think is the very beginning of a change to our pattern for California, one that will evolve next week. The southern branch of the westerlies will develop further and bring a chance of some light precipitation to Southern Ca. At this time, the models are struggling with the amount of energy the southern stream gets for the first half of next week. At the moment, whatever it gets it is not likely to effect the Central Sierra much if any.  It still appears that the weather system or short wave that hold the most promise for the Mammoth Area will occur between Thanksgiving and the end of that weekend.  The Dweebs have been touting this for a while now.   The European has been the most consistent with it. Now the latest 12z GFS has more to add to it. However, with all this said, there is still, too much distance in time to try to pin down on whether it will bring 3 to 6 inches of snow or 1 to 2 feet.

Stay Tuned……………………….:-)