January 1st, 2019

Days will be milder beginning Wednesday with seasonal temps for Thursday and Friday….There will be a return of the 40s for highs Thursday and Friday. Lows near zero of late, will rise to the 20s….lighter winds aloft will be highlighted.

Upcoming pattern shows promise to bring significant snowfall beginning this weekend. However, there will definitely be a split in the upper flow that will give forecasters problems. There looks to be a storm or two in the bunch at will give the Sierra plentiful snowfall, however, others that seem headed in our direction that will dive down the coast and miss us completely. Looks like a head banger pattern to me….

The Dweeber….


12-31-2018 Update
Happy New Year From the Dweebs!!! Latest gfs and ecmwf global model runs show a number of systems next week, bringing either moderate snowfall to possible heavy snowfall for a time. The Euro (ecmwf) has a small atmospheric river tied to a system on the 7th.

These are just forward looking systems that have little confidence to forecasters at this time. If the trend holds through this Wednesday or Thursday, that would be very encouraging… The guidance suggests 1 to 3 feet of snow next week, just from this mornings 12z runs. That is not a forecast…

12-30-2018 As headlined….Another Cold Slider drops south Sunday night into Monday night bringing with it a short but chilly period to the Eastern Sierra Monday and New Years Day. Thereafter. a milder period will develop with light breezes by Mid-Week with more seasonal temperature’s Wednesday through Friday.

The Dweebs this morning can not ignore the odds of the return of an active pattern for the following weekend. However, the devil as they say, is in the details. This week, the MJO fly’s rapidly through phase 6 into 7 and Phase space 7 shows better odds of being wet in parts of California. It still favors Southern CA the most, but the CFS shows in this instance, wet for most of the state week 2. We will hopefully know more by Mid Week.

FYI, next weekend is the end of week one and the following week being week 2. Week 2 may prove to be a zinger! 😉

Sensible Weather:

Expect highs in the upper 40s today Sunday, followed by mid 20s on Monday with light snow showers Monday. Expect another round of cold NE wind on Mammoth Mt with strong wind chill’s Monday. New Years morning will likely be in the single digits with highs in the low 30s….There is a warm up Wednesday into Thursday. Thursday’s high temperature will warm back into the upper 40s. The pattern expected the following weekend will involve milder pacific air. However, if by chance the initial system comes in over cold air left behind over the Owens Valley with no surface wind, there could be some snow for the Owens Valley floor. The Dweebs hope to know more by Mid Week. PS. The Euro favors the more southerly track while the GFS has more of a track further north. Time will tell…. Of note, transitionary pattern forecasts are less reliable…