Weather Update at 1:00pm Tuesday…..

Saturday 4:40PM Update:  
Just had a peak at the Euro this afternoon, and it too is on board for either northwest or inside sliders beginning Christmas Day and another later that week.  This is a chilly pattern with generally light amounts of snowfall.  Snow to Water Ratios will be high….13:1 to 15:1.  More later on timing……..:-)

From Saturday AM:
Forecast is still on track for the Sunday Night/Monday Morning Storm with moderate amounts expected over Mammoth Mt. I will mention that the Saturday 12z GFS did show a narrow filament of atmospheric river sliding southward through Central CA early Monday AM. Although this storm is still expected to split as it moves onshore, the added moisture from the small “AR” might give us an unexpected bump in accumulation early Monday AM.  The Dweebs are still looking for up to 10 inches maybe a foot of snow over the upper elevations on Mammoth Mt. But a surprise might happen due to the AR.

The remainder of next week should continue to be dry. However there is a system passing to the north Thursday night the 20th that might kick up some breeze and give us some cloudiness. After a dry but possibly breezy weekend before Christmas, a transition will begin with either inside or NW sliders or in the case of the Euro, a wetter system from the west for Christmas even/day. I am not all that bullish yet on any of the particular solutions at this time because of their large differences and the fact that the CPC feels that the MJO will be in phase 4 and 5 through the end of this year. This means that there is not a significant tropical forced signal that supports strong storms in the week 2 period.  However, both GFS and ECMWF have some colder/wetter systems that may bring light to possibly moderate storms before year end. Additionally, at this time, no significant ARs are expected to affect our area as well through years end.

I will update later in the weekend……

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)