12/14/2018  6:45am

Global models coming in more consolidated and a bit wetter with the Sunday night system so that’s a good point. Still looks like no more than a foot over the crest….

MJO in Phase 4 now propagating quickly according to most models….That’s excellent!  Contrary to the 8 to 14 outlook, This is an indication that we may indeed have a storm or two between Christmas and The New Year!

From December 13th; Beginning with this Friday, we are in for an unsettled period through the following Monday. The Dweebs expect a rather breezy day on Friday with Wind Warnings expected for travelers along the highway 395 corridor. For the most part, this trof is dry with little cooling for our area. The next and final upstream system continues to show weakening with just borderline light to moderate snowfall expected, mainly beginning Sunday night into Monday. The Models have been back peddling on this storm for over a week now as they play catch-up with the MJO moving out over the Indian Ocean and over the Maritime Continent where it is just now entering. The MJO; (Madden Julian Oscillation) creates a large scale area of upper divergence ahead and Upper Convergence in its rear. There is an predictable response from this air sea coupled wave depending upon “where it is”. As it moves over the Maritime Continent, the wave often forces higher than normal heights at 500MB (18000 ft) over the Eastern Pacific and far western US, often weakening or blocking storms from California. It is likley that after the upcoming Monday storm leaves, we warm up and continue to be dry though that following weekend.  It should be mentioned that this MJO in the location it is moving through will have a tendency to weaken a storm more than the global models might otherwise prog. So do not be surprised that by the time the storm gets here it is weaker and arrives even later than forecasted.  The MJO is progressive and will either weaken or progress east over a period of time and our winter weather will resume with storminess.  

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………:-)