Warm Frontal precip began in Mammoth around 3:30PM, however UVM related precip will start about 8:30pm tonight..

12:30pm Christmas Eve;
looks like our storm has slowed a bit. It’s beginning looks to start between 8:00pm to 9:00pm tonight. Looking for snowfall accumulations between 12 and 18 inches between Main lodge and the upper bowls by Christmas mid Morning. In town….expect some 5 to 10 inches by 7:00AM. Christmas Day looks snow showery with another 1 to 3 inches. Next weather system will bring snow showers, later Thursday into Friday. That will be followed by some very cold weather. Another COLD slider looks possible New Years Eve.

Long Range: MJO forecasted into Phase 6 and 7. (Western Pacific) GFS went bonkers…The ECMWF is not nearly as strong. The Dweebs feel that strong ridging will take place the first week of January, following by possible retrogression, then sometime beginning the 2nd week of January, an active wet pattern will develop. This is based upon climate models weeks 3 and 4.

From Sunday AM; Latest guidance this morning from the 06z and 12z runs are showing a richer PWAT push of moisture ahead of the Christmas Eve storm. This means that we can expect a bit wetter scenario Monday Night with amounts now projected to be in the 10 to 15 inch range over Mammoth Mt. The Town of Mammoth could see anywhere between 5 to 10 inches by mid morning Christmas Day. The storm should clear out to just snow showers over the higher elevations by mid morning on the 25th. Between Christmas Day and January 1st, we can expect weather systems to take on a more inside slider track. This means that weather systems (WX) will drop south along the eastern slopes of the sierra or Great Basin producing upslope snow showers. There is a significant wave coming through Thursday night and another about New years Eve.

Happy Holidays to all from the Dweebs!!