Archive for year 2018

Storm System decide to pay visit to “Sunny Southern California” dumping heavy rain, while only moderate amounts of snowfall have fallen over the upper elevations of the Eastern Sierra….Mammoth Mt reporting up to 18 inches over the higher elevations this morning……Expect a mostly sunny weekend with possibility of another storm after Mid Week next week….

It is always a disappointment when we do not reach winter storm criteria in town, but 18 inches over the upper elevations and possibly more to come today is certainly encouraging!  Results; The GFS had it further south and so it was the correct model to follow….Go figure!  A difference of 50 to 75 miles was all it took.  In the meantime, our winter storm warning has been dropped to a winter weather advisory due to slippery roads, mainly above 7000-7500 feet.  Latest rapid refresh model shows 1 to 3 inches in town with some 3 to 6 inches possible on Mammoth Mt through tonight. There maybe be a short period of Wrap-Around as the upper low moves through to the south of us. Although we did not do as well as we hoped for, we did a lot better than many of our neighboring ski resorts in the Northern Sierra!

Wednesday will be a day of improving weather with skies yielding a few early morning showers. Sky’s will become partly cloudy during the day then clear out Wednesday night. High temps will rise to the 40s Wednesday. The weekend weather will be fair with calm winds.  Expect an increase of upper elevation breeze Monday afternoon into Tuesday next week.  Lows over the weekend will be in the 20s with highs in the low 50s.

Outlook:  Although the Dweebs have not seen the latest ECMWF model, the latest 12Z Tuesday GFS has the upper jet moving back into Northern California early next week where it keeps it there for several days. The Upper Jet sags south towards us, during the second half of next week.  (Using the Japanese surface cyclogenesis method), as a timing tool used by Hovmuller, it shows a rapidly deepening surface low that is “bombing” off the coast of Japan the next Wednesday.  That energy is expected to come through our area about Sunday the 21st. So, based upon this theory, the following weekend should be wet.   (Again, I have not seen the latest EURO as it has not run yet) I will update later today….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs….

While the Eastern Sierra Experiences it first Dusting this Morning….More important changes on the Horizon lead to Weather Optimism for the Month of January…

 

Monday 7:00am

WSW now in effect

note:  snow level will rise today to between 8000 and 8500 then come down later this afternoon and tonight.

 

All model simulations have a track of the upper low moving west to east between Santa Barbara and Lax. This is further south than predictions Saturday. Main focus of forcing will be Southern Sierra with extension north to about Mammoth. Heaviest Precipitation will be coastal mountains of Ventura Co and eastward with local amounts 7 to 9 inches of water.

Mammoth Mt stands to receive 3 to 4 feet over the crest with 18 to 30 inches in town above 8000 feet by Tuesday night. 15 to 24 inches at 7500. Expect a fair weekend with high pressure aloft.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……

 

Complete update Tuesday morning…

 

Sunday pm update

 

Winter storm warning:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=CAZ073&warncounty=CAC051&firewxzone=CAZ273&local_place1=13%20Miles%20E%20Lee%20Vining%20CA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=37.939&lon=-118.887

 

300pm sat update

 

A winter storm watch has been issued by the national weather service for elevations above 7500 feet beginning at 7:00pm Monday night and continuing through Tuesday night. Between 2 and 3 feet of snow is expected by Tuesday night.

Amounts over the crest are expected to be 4 feet+.  There will be a break next weekend before the “first” powerful jetstream of the winter of 2017/18 arrives about the 15th…

 

I will have a detailed update in AM

 

 

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Finally…cooler breezy weather has returned to the high county this morning with a dusting of snow over the higher elevation’s and more to come over the next 5 to 7 days. Our dominant west coast high pressure system has shifted east to the state of Utah this morning. That’s enough to open the door to some pacific moisture and cooler temperatures.  The wave that moved though early this morning brought a few hundreds of an inch of water EQ. Another wave will move though Friday night with up to .30 inches of water over the crest. This should bring some 2 to 4 inches of snow over the top of Mammoth Mt. High temps will be in the 40s in town with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s

Extended:

A more important system that has been well advertised will move into the high country early next week with the potential to bring between 1 to 2 feet of snow over the higher elevations by Wednesday afternoon. The storm is being handled differently by both preferred global models. The ECMWF (EURO)  has the system coming in as an open trof while the GFS has it coming in as a large closed low. Either way, Mammoth gets good snowfall but the EC would be wetter as it can transport more moisture into the system while the GFS has us in the NE quad of the closed low system. The GFS  closed nature favors good lift, however, does not have as much moisture potential as the EC.   In that the EC has ensemble members that are more numerous with its solution, the Dweebs are favoring the EC at this time. IE more precip. Stay tuned on this Monday through Wednesday system for next week.  PS. it will be a colder system as well.

Long Range:

Another pattern change favors more of a zonal flow about mid month.  This is associated with quite the potent Pacific Jet Stream. I am suspect at this time of this wet scenario.  This pattern would be A-Typical due to the nature of a winter that has been associated with mostly Meridional flow thus far.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)

Subtropical Moisture continues for flow over the region with a wave moving in Wednesday Night….A few inches of snow is possible over the much higher elevations….Another wave will move over the area Friday/Night…this will be a bit colder system with more light snowfall….Best storm on the horizon maybe next Tuesday and Wednesday….

Lots of old-time locals often times remind us that some of the biggest winters can start from very dry falls. History tells us that big winters can start as late as January or February!  So keep the faith and the shovels handy!

Todays weather guidance still has some light upper elevation snowfall for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is followed by another marginally wetter system for Friday into Saturday AM.  That may give the upper mountain up to 6 inches according to the latest CRFC forecast. There is a more significant storm according to the European model and its ensembles for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. If the Euro is correct on its solution, then were off to the races!  The GFS is not as wet as it keeps it further to the north.

More Later………………….:-)

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………….:-)