A Winter Weather Advisory is hoisted for Sunday night….  No change in the expected snowfall amounts for either the Mountain or the Town of Mammoth Lakes.

4 to 8 inches in town and some 8 to 14 inches on Mammoth Mt by Monday morning….

After a fair dry Saturday….Snowfall will begin mid to late afternoon Sunday and continue through Sunday night….Snow Showers are expected through Mid Morning Morning….

Snow showers ended this morning leaving partly cloudy skies…..N|S Upper Jet axis over NV this AM translating east. Saturday should be a day for the Blue Birds although some high clouds possible… Sunday the last in the series of storms rolls in mid to late afternoon. Should be a moderate snow producer for the upper elevations. Mam MT- 8 to 14 inches – 4 to 8 in town.

MLK holiday Monday looks partly cloudy with morning snow showers… breezy but nice….The week looks dry with high temperatures in the 30s and 40s. lows in the teens….

Next pattern change to wet may occur about the 1st of February. What are the Dweebs seeing?

Yesterday’s Climate forecast model, (CFS) and associated MJO phase space were a lot different than both the GFS and ECMWF. It showed the location of the enhanced convective state of the MJO moving to the Phase Space 7/8 of the MJO index. This track usually is professed with an increase in amplitude in the eastern pacific ridge that ends up with a teleconnection, (-EPO). IE Upper blocking over Alaska. The transition in phase space from 7 to 8 to 1 is usually accompanied by retrogression of the block over AK (-EPO) to near the Bering Sea….(-WPO) Mother Nature has a habit of extending the EAJ well into the eastern pacific during these times as the upper jet gets modulated/enhanced eastward. It is noted that both GFS and ECMWF did not show any of that. In fact to the contrary, the MJO dives into the circle of death in phase space 6 of the RMM-2 (western pacific). So there really is no agreement to believe from yesterday or even this morning by the MJO index to support the CFS at all. However, for the second day in a row the CFS has it again. Also, looking at the Week 2 progs of the GFS, both the 06z Friday and 12z Friday showed the -WPO teleconnection and extension of the EAJ to the eastern pacific. So… it is picking up on something! I would say that if the MJO index RIMM begins to mimic the CFS tomorrow AM, after several more GFS runs today and tonight, I will begin to have more bias toward the CFS tomorrow. At some point, if the CFS stays consistent, the GFS and eventually the ECMWF will come around. Climatically, anytime in February is ripe for this (-WPO) undercutting pattern…. Timing? During first week of February.