Ok, Sabbatical off but time off to move early next week….We do have a pattern change next week. Both the GFS and CFS, but not yet the ECMWF, are showing the MJO going into Phase 7 which can be wet in early February. SEE:

I use the Phase Space as support for the Global Models in the week two period. The MJO Composites do show more support in January for this pattern but early February is fine…. Phase 7 of the RMM2 supports retrogression for the Long Wave features over the eastern pacific (EP) to initially allow for the weakening of the west coast ridge, then retrogression of the feature afterword’s. The most likley pattern to develop is a cold Trof to set up either over the far west with some over water trajectory for light to moderate Cold Storms with light fluffy snow, or… further west for a cold-wetter scenario. There is also the possibility of subtropical moisture getting into the mix as one of the global models is trending to a REX Block, long enough to spin up a subtropical low with some phasing possibilities. We will not know how all this will come together for at least another 3 to 7 days when it gets into an earlier time frame. I will mention that “if”, and it is a big if, the MJO decides to remain strong and travels further east, toward and over the Nino Basin, that would be phases 8 then 1, which could end up a very wet pattern with an AR. So far the European model is not picking up on all this, either in its week two period or its MJO forecast. So, confidence is lower than what would be the case if the opposite were true. I would say that the odds are greater than 50% at this time.

In the meantime enjoy a weekend of January Thaw!! 🙂

Thursday Evening the 24th;

West Coast Ridge/Eastern Trof will dominate the pattern the next week with mostly sunny days and fair nights. High temperatures will range from the Mid 50s this weekend to the mid 40s next week. Nighttime temps in the 20s and teens. Expect light winds except over the Sierra Crest on Friday. The upper ridge does show some tendency to weaken by the end of the month, leading to lots of possibilities as we go through the first week of February. The GFS has the MJO forecasted to go into phase space 7 week 2, which can be wet this time of the year…. However, many of the models keep it in phase 6 which is dry. In the meantime, the Dweebs will take a sabbatical for the next 7 days unless there are clear signs of what kind of change is in store for us all…..The Dweeber…..:-)

A major pattern change is underway that will bring milder temperatures to the high country and an end to storminess for at least a week to ten days. The players and support show the MJO moving into Phase 6 next week in which composites show as dry for January in California and cold and wet in the east. This Ridge/Trough pattern is anchored by a deepening Hudson Bay Low and a highly amplified ridge over the far west. The Wave Length will be very stable. A January Thaw is likley to develop later this week sending high temps into the low 50s by the weekend. Lows at night at the village location will be in the teens by Mid week, then 20s over the weekend. At the Moment the Central Sierra is some 120% to 130% above normal in snowpack. Mammoth Mt is filled in with an 7 to 11 foot base, bottom to top. Skiing and riding are what you would expect on California’s favorite Mountain for this time of the year!

Next Series of storms will develop sometime during the Month of February…..Climate Model CFS V2 suggests possibly during the end of the first week in February…

In the meantime, high temperatures will go from the low 30s today Tuesday, to the low 50s by this weekend with cooler temperatures arriving by the following Monday.

As soon as the Dweebs have a better idea on a significant change, this blog will be updated…..In the meantime enjoy!!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)