Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for April, 2019
Cooler Days Ahead through Tuesday as a small upper low heads east, south of Mammoth then Dry Northerly Cold Front furthers cooling Tuesday into Wednesday AM….Cool showery weather may return the following weekend….
Monday April 29, 2019
Its been a fabulous few days, enjoying the spring thaw and the warm high country sun…. The Forecast models show a small upper low moving the Southern CA and Northern Baja today and tonight. Unstable air will interact with the high mid August like sun today for a chance of mainly high elevation showers Monday. The upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific will amplify northward and help an overland cold front to deepen south Tuesday. This in turn forces short wave energy to drop south over the Northern Great Basin and along the Eastern Slopes of the Sierra Tuesday, into Early Wednesday AM. Although there may be a few showers from this Cold Front, for the most part over Southern Mono County it will be just wind and cooling. Highs in Mammoth Tuesday will hang close to the upper 40s during the afternoon with a hard freeze Wednesday AM with lows in the mid 20s. A warm up is expected to begin Wednesday afternoon into Friday with highs once again in the upper 60s by Friday.
Looking onward, it’s all about the Eastern Pacific Ridge as it builds northward with a weak undercutting of the westerlies. This allows short wave energy to once again cross into CA over the following weekend. (Cinco de Mayo) Thus the pattern appears to be repeating itself with a minor closed low, this time coming in north of Santa Barbara for a better pattern of upper diffluence and upper divergence the next weekend for the Sierra. Then yet another System will follow from the north mid week, similar to what we expect tomorrow Tuesday.
Both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks show above normal precipitation for the Sierra. Of course above normal precip this time of the year doesn’t always mean much snow or rain. Not because of temperatures but because the climo is pretty dry by early May.
Bye for Now….
The Dweeber………………..:-)
Weak double hit this weekend will provide some showers and cooler weather…..Warm up expected early next week…..Long Range models not showing any signifacant storms for the rest of April…..
Friday April 19, 2019
No surprises this morning…upper low over Vegas. It will move slowly east…Then begin to accelerate eastward Tuesday, with the affect of lighter winds as the day goes on. Light breezes are expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. It will warm between 10 and 15 degrees by Wednesday. It will be a bit cooler next weekend with the chance of a few instability showers Saturday and Sunday. Hi temps today mid 50 then low to mid 60 Thursday and Friday.
Next stormy cooler period about months end or early May.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……….?
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Easter Sunday:
A few instability showers are possible Sunday afternoon, however no measurable precipitation expected. Upper Trof to remain over the Desert SW through Monday Night with northerly or Northeasterly flow. Upper trof progress east Tuesday and Wednesday. A rapid warm up is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, before another weak Trof moves through the following weekend. That system looks unlikely to bring much more then high clouds, some minor cooling and breezy weather. Next windy, cooler showery weather expect about May1st…
Highs in Mammoth Sunday near 50, then mid 50s Monday and 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the 20s rising to the 30s next week….
Note: MJO developing in phase 2 then travels through phase 5. This time of year the MJO usually has little effect. However, this year seems to be a different animal too.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)
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Saturday Afternoon… 1:15PM
Mammoth Mt currently on Lightning hold at the moment. Latest lightning detection shows some cloud to cloud spikes to the west of Mammoth Mt.
Frontal band is weakening and should be through by about 2:00 PM this afternoon. So far we’ve picked up .12 inches of rain in town. Still RAIN/SLEET..
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The on again off again pattern of every 3 days, a weak storm, appears to becoming to an end by this Monday. Meanwhile, we do have some unsettled weather Saturday into Sunday AM with showers possible with light precipitation totals expected. The are two weather systems off the coast. 1. Subtropical low lifting ENE through California tonight. 2. A cooler short wave coming in Saturday from the NW. The Northwesterly short wave appears to have the best UVM. So afternoon showers best bet with daytime convection. Expect Saturdays highs to cool to the MID 50s, from Fridays 60s and then low 50s for Easter Sunday. Nights will cool to the upper 20s the next few days…. So this weekend may experience the last of the showers and significant cooling for awhile…..But not for this Spring. There is always the chance for some instability showers now and then, but not much cooling associated with it.
Just a gut feeling…..I do expect a decent storm or two in May. This may be one of those Springs that really warm up in the Owens Valley, only to get hit hard with a frost, later in May.
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)
More snow showers on tap for Thursday/Ngt….then the on again off again unsettled weather makes an exit by the middle of next week with Spring Thaw conditions insight prior to the following weekend….However, the last Week of April looks stormy again…..
Wednesday April 10, 2019
Typical unsettled Spring Weather will continue with nice days interlaced with days offering snow showers. Thursday afternoon and evening will offer some snow showers as well as late Sunday Night through Tuesday. Amounts will be light on Mammoth Mt with 5 day totals of a few inches. Another weather system Monday night into Tuesday may offer a bit more..
The upper jet over the Eastern Pacific is seasonally choppy now, coming at us out of the NW. That normally noes not offer much in the way of precip during any season. Being April, it offers even less. It usually brings windy periods with shots of either light snowfall or snow showers. This is our typical April nuisance weather. It a nuisance, as most of us are over the winter snow now, and anxious for the snow to be gone from town, so we can get to our gardening, clean up and eventually enjoy the warmer and longer days. The Eastern Pacific Ridge is parked out 140 West in the ECMWF 5 day means. It progresses to the west coast during the 2nd half of next week. That will bring some serious run off to the high country into that following weekend. Temperatures look to go above normal the second half of next week. Don’t put those jackets away quite yet, longer range climate models show another unsettled week during the last week of April. The Dweebs will keep you posted later, to fine tune that outlook with more detail…..
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)
