Wednesday AM Update:

The QPF has been grossly increased for this first storm as a powerful for May, Atmospheric River slams into the Southern Sierra. Here are the point forecasts for snowfall for the Mammoth Lakes area from the NWS, through Friday AM

Mammoth Mt:     Tonight – 5 to 9 inches; Thursday –  6 to 10 inches; Thursday Night – 2 to 4 inches.  So about 2 feet over the upper mountain by Friday AM.

Village at Mammoth   Tonight  1/2 to and inch; Thursday – 3 to 7 inches; Thursday Night – 1 to 2 inches, Friday AM  1/2 inch

 

As mentioned in the discussion below, The combination of the El Nino Base State and the strong MJO has created constructive interference, producing a massive amount of PWAT into the tropics, part of which has been picked up by the short wave train across the Eastern Pacific and into California.

 

Saturday nights storm will not have the rich source of PWAT that tonight’s storm has, so it will not be as wet.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………..:-)

 

 

 

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What is particularly interesting about the developing pattern beginning Wednesday is the “amount of moisture highlighted in the PWAT parameter” in both EC and GFS, for a May Storm. This is quite unusual, but not exceptional. Strong winds will develop ahead of the front, that will be moving through our area Thursday morning. High temps will cool to the low 40s on Thursday. Lows in the teens and twenties Friday AM. About a foot of fresh snow is possible over the upper elevations of Mammoth Mt by Friday AM.

Another storm with an equally impressive upper jet will head into California later in the day Saturday, bringing more snow and rain, beginning later Saturday afternoon into early next week.  Although this system does not have the rich PWAT (precipitable water) indicated in the models like the Thursday storm, it appears to be a a storm that is more protracted in duration as the storm sort of stalls out over California next week. So precipitation is likely to become more convective in nature toward the middle of next week. I will have a better handle on next week’s storm by Sunday.  At this time, Saturday morning and  afternoon look to be the best time for outdoor activities this weekend, although it will become increasingly breezy in the afternoon. The high temperatures forecast for Saturday is 58 degrees in Mammoth Lakes.

Comments from the CPC:

  1. The MJO is now in phases 8/1 and is constructively interfering with El Nino.
  2. Constructive interference between the MJO and El Niño resulted in a coherent pattern spatially with large anomalies.
  3. El Nino continues to elevate the chances of above-average rainfall across the equatorial Pacific, while the MJO strongly favors above-average rainfall across parts of the East Pacific, Central America, and northern South America through at least late May.
  4. The above-average precipitation favored for the western U.S. is related to a highly amplified upper-level trough and an influx of subtropical moisture.

 

 

Dr. Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)