Wednesday Evening the 17th.

The global models are making the change to a warmer pattern next week in Mammoth with a strengthening Continental Upper High, retrograding further west. Expect an increase of precipitable water early next week.  The Owens Valley will become more humid with a chance of thunderstorms beginning Tuesday.

The flow becomes southerly in both the EC and GFS early next week which is not the most favorable pattern for thunderstorms in Mammoth. Nevertheless, isolated showers and thunderstorm will develop as early as Sunday, especially areas along the Mono County convergence zone. Areal coverage will increase through mid week next week. Most favorable upper flow for Mammoth is Southeast flow.  So there will be an increase in convection, but mostly areas east, north and southeast of Mammoth Lakes.

So we will have a chance of Showers and Thunderstorms by mid Week. Should the models become more favorable with SE flow, later next week, the odds will increase for better wetting rains here.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

 

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On Friday the Town of Mammoth experienced its warmest day of the year with a high of 77 degrees. Early morning lows were in the mid 50s Saturday AM.  Late afternoon isolated thunderstorms occurred over the more favorable Bodie Hills north west of Mono lake Friday afternoon. This is a common area for convergence type heat related thunderstorms that happens in July when the flow is light enough out of the west southwest, meeting the afternoon diurnal southerly flow coming up the Owens Valley and Eastern CA.

Convergence type thunderstorms and daily air-mass modification can produce some locally heavy rain in those areas, if dryer air from a stronger southwest flow does not develop soon enough. This year, plenty of episodes of SW flow seem to be the norm.  In fact stronger Southwest flow is Developing this weekend, so today Saturday should be the last day for isolated thunderstorms for this episode. One more note…these thunderstorms are not related to any monsoon pattern which is defined by the seasonal wind. (Synoptic scale SSE upper flow). The earliest opportunity for that pattern to develop will be week two according the the global models…..Or beginning about the 21st……

Expect the weather in Mammoth to remain dry for the next 5 to 7 days…..High temperatures will cool to the low to mid 70s by Sunday and Monday…….lows in the 40s. The Zephyr will strengthen with gusts to 35mph Sunday PM. Thereafter, a warming trend is expected the second half of next week…..

According to ECMWF and GFS models….Longer Range week 2 becomes more favorable for some southerly flow with possibly Southeasterly flow aloft at 500mb. Although the Monsoon has not developed over the west or even the desert SW to a significant degree….climatically, the last week of July is the most favorable time frame, so we are getting closer time-wise in Climo.

 

i will update on the progress of any Southerly flow or Southeasterly flow the middle of next week for the following week.

 

Dr howard and the Dweebs…………