No changes in the short or medium range


Some changes are showing up in the GFS this morning around the 15th to the 21st. The GFS tries to bring in some short wave energy to the west coast. The Dweebs have indicated for sometime that the pattern would de-amplify around then,  simply because the Hudson Bay Low Kicks out, creating an excessive wavelength. As result, some short wave energy will reach the west coast. However, simply put, that does not mean we will get a good storm. It means that well get some clouds, possibly some breezes and some cooling, possibly some showers. The ECMWF as well as most other models do not bring any significant short wave energy into our area at that time…..


European Long Range:


Much More Optimistic..

It says that although the month of November will be drier than normal, The tempo really picks up during the 2nd week of December, so that the Christmas Holidays look very good with abundant snowfall before hand.


The Dweeber…….:-)




The western hemispheric Omega Block is well establishes now and is likely to continue for some time. And although it will begin to weaken toward mid month, allowing some storm energy to reach the west coast. As indicted in past discussions, the EAJ is retracted and in this case, may be being forced by the +IOD in the Indian Ocean.  In that the QBO is in its positive phase with a deep, for this time of the year, Hudson Bay Low. That is helping to anchor the Omega Block pattern over the far west..

The +(IOD) has created a low frequency tropical state in which anomalous tropical convection is displaced both further west, south of the Arabian Sea and at times further east of the western pacific. This is having an affect on the EAJ I believe.

The next expectation, is that the current cycle of the Hudson Bay Low will come to an end, as it  “kicks out east” toward mid month. This allows the wavelength of the westerlies to deamplify.  Initially, this should allow some shortwave energy to reassert itself through the mean ridge position long the west coast. That would bring showers and colder weather. It is way too soon to know if this will be an inside or coastal slider. Better Visibility later this week….Stay Tuned.

Will the Hudson Bay Low redevelop for another long term cycle? Only time will tell…..


The MJO…

Although the MJO shows strongly through Phase 8 in the GFS next week, I think that is bogus as the *ECMWF is not in agreement.

*Remember, the European model has more computing power than the GFS model. It uses data continuously to make a forecast, rather than just four times per day. Statistically, it has been more accurate than the GFS. Additionally, ensembles are used to test different variables in forecasting equations.

Sensible Weather… For Mammoth LAKES

Dry this week.   Light winds..

Highs in the low to mid 60s. Lows in the upper 20s and low 30s.


The Dweeber………