The weather sensibly over the next 3 to 4 days remains virtually unchanged. Thereafter, expect a gradual cool down beginning Wednesday through the following Friday with considerable high clouds over head and WSW breezes. This change comes about as the current portion for the large scale pattern affecting California weakens enough, allowing short wave action from the west to either come through California greatly dampened, or stalling out off shore. The main point of the pattern change is not really a change. Rather, it is one of de-amplification, that allows over running of our west coast ridge. This will result in an increase of high clouds, cooler temperatures and a slight chance of showers later next week. I do not expect much in the way of anything significant from precipitation. The pattern over all looks drier than normal for the next two weeks at least….

Curiosities worth thinking about…..

  1. The warm water pool that was near the west coast in September has redeveloped some 1500 miles further WNW at 150W. It is in a position, should an upper height anomaly favor its location, set up a long wave trof with axis over the far west…. Not Bad..
  2. Some Models show a strong, highly amplified MJO the next few weeks.  However, this time, there appears to be little affect on the mid latitude circulation. The GFS week 2 progs show cool short wave energy approaching the west coast with slight chance of light precipitation, while the ECMWF dives the MJO toward the circle of death near the Rimm Phase 8/1 in its climate models and the outlook remains dry. The ECMWF is an air/sea coupled model. I believe that It is better than the GFS with the MJO at distance. As long as the MJO is not propagating strongly in the key phases in the ECMWF, I am not going to be a believer in buying into an extended EAJ at any time now in the near or distant future.  One thing that is becoming more apparent for this Fall/Winter. It may be quite the humbling winter for forecasters, when the storms finally start rolling toward the west coast with some storms making it and others forecasted to make, do not. So…Some will split when they are not supposed to.
  3. CPC is telling us in their discussion that the +(IOD) will create La Nina like conditions at times with a retracted EAJ. (East Asian Jet Stream)   So has indicated in my earlier discussion, the pattern will likely go from a total blocking pattern to one of west coast split flows, later in this season. The Warm Pool in its current location suggests the possibility of some very cold western Arctic outbreaks in December as well.  Should the EAJ get modulated somehow from the tropics to the west coast, were off to the races.  However, at this time, I do not see any horses…..
  4. I will have an update later Tuesday or early Wednesday after the updated CPC discussion.

The Dweeber……..