12-17-2019 1:35pm Update

New 12z Euro today shows less emphasis on the Sunday storm now as the upper flow becomes too southerly to do much good. It is the secondary short wave (Tuesday) on its back side that is closer to the coast with the upper flow that is more “natural” to the sierra that counts. So today update reflects the second storm next week that appears to be a better snowfall producer than the 1st.  There is another wave for Christmas Eve that may produce additional snowfall.  All in all, I believe that it it will take a few more days for all this to work out for better model consensus.

Only other issue that has recently popped up is the MJO now projected with respectable amplitude into Phase 6/7; the end of the year into next year. (end of week 2) Some of the composites look wet for Southern CA and the Desert Southwest.

This will be interesting to watch develop….


The Dweeber……………….:-)





  1. Wednesday system has not changed….Pretty weak. Just showers Wednesday
  2. Sunday through Wednesday system
    a. Front looks good but cold air is diving south down the coast for a storm with southerly flow.  Not good for a major snow producer. At the Moment, I am expecting 1 Foot Plus by Christmas. Will update later with any model change.
  3. The biggest change today is with the 12Z Euro Vs the GFS.  The Euro has a good storm Thursday night into Friday the 27th. Using Hovmoller timing tool, surface bomb O’geneses occurs on the 22nd off Japan. based upon the timing tool, expect storm to move in Thursday night the 26th. The 12Z gfs has nothing!  🙂


The Weak Subtropical fetch that developed Friday worked out the way the Dweebs expected. The QPF with it was about .5 and Mammoth Mt reported some 6 to 7 inches of snow, storm total at the Main Lodge. The Forecast of between 1 and 3 inches in town was spot on as well. Looking down the road weather wise this week,  The cold air behind the belt of westerlies that pushed through last night left some chilly temperatures. . Expect highs temps to begin the new week in the low 30s with lows in the single digits then teens.  The next weather system for Wednesday does not have a lot going for it.  The upper flow with the Small Trof is from the south (no orographic’s) and the paltry upper level wave has only a 85 Knot upper jet. The Dweebs do not expect any more than a dusting…..

Hemispheric Pattern:

Looking at the the EC ENS, the Northern American PV is located north of the Arctic Circle along 110 W and a long wave Trof is off the west coast at about 140W and “negative tilt”. The upper flow across the pacific is de-amplified.  Further de-amplification is expected through mid week with the long wave ridge position near the dateline. Beyond mid week, the upper flow amplify s again. This is in response to some energy coming off Japan with a surface low spinning up. There is some question this morning on the timing of the storm for the end of this week. For what ever it is worth, the Euro shows QPF of about an 1.00 to 1.50 and the GFS much wetter this morning with over 3 inches of qpf.   We all want another storm before Christmas, but got to get it right!


Another update in a few days…..

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………………:-)