4:00PM Tuesday

Read the new CPC discussion this morning….They are still bullish on the storm the 2nd half of next week.  The CPC new 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks are wet for the Central and Northern Sierra in today’s update. Obviously they like the GFS and are going with it. Still the ECMWF is not that all convenience to me yet….Today is only Tuesday.  To be certain, the ECMWF will eventually have to come in line, or the GFS in line worth the ECMWF.

The GFS shows a heavy snow pattern for the Sierra the 16th and 17th with a deep closed low off the coast of the Columbia River…..That would be snowfall measures in feet….

Also worth mentioning but unrelated to west coast precipitation, the strong positive IOD has broken down over the Indian Ocean.

Convection Exploded over the Maritime Continent supporting the full demise of the IOD!!  The folk’s in Australia should gradually see their weather return to more normal with the possibility of future rains, climatically permitting before too long…


More later…..


Beginning tonight , the first in a series of storms will begin their track over California. We can expect much colder temperatures, strong gusty winds and mainly light amounts of snowfall with each system. Best estimate is snowfalls with each system bringing anywhere from a dusting to a few inches.  Again, light amounts in the high country here is between 1 and 6 inches. At this time, 6 inches is quite unlikely from any individual system but over time, accumulations may add up tO that amount or even a bit more.  These systems are quite cold and the snow to water ratio may be high with snow to water ratios higher then 10:1 to as high as 12:1 to possibly as high as 15:1.

Next week:

Here lies the problem and concern,

Yesterday both Global Forecast System (GFS) and the ECMWF, EURO were in somewhat agreement with a strong short wave carving out a nice cold low off the cost of the pacific northwest with SW flow into CA. If we believe the GFS, it set sup a strong heavy snow pattern for the Sierra.

However, there is a lot of caution here as the MJO, “The Madden Julian Oscillation” will be in strong phase 6 later next week This phase 6 location over the Pacific argues strongly against the solution of the GFS as the composites show somewhat below normal temperatures for Central and Northern CA. More importantly, the precipitation composite is quite dry for Central and Northern CA. In looking at the lagg composites at 200hpa height lagg composites, there is nothing definitive for the time frame during the second half of next week for any kind of a big ridge or any thing like that. However, again….The precip composites for central and northern CA are enough for the Dweebs to draw Caution to the week two forecast of the GFS.  Does the MJO always couple with the mid latitudes….NO!!

Updating more today…


The Dweeber…