Its been pretty scary for a longer range forecaster to go out into the week two period with a meaningful storm that may deliver well over a foot of snow during the 2nd half of next week.  As touted in past discussion, the MJO is strong now in phase 5 and staying strong into phase 6. That means that it is moving into the Western Pacific. When it does, typically, we ridge up along the west coast in the winter. (dry) (teleconnection)

However, the long range global models, the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in developing large scale cyclonic flow over the far Eastern Pacific,  Wednesday night through Thursday. The Cyclonically Curved upper jet usually means business here in the Eastern Sierra with lots of moisture being generated over the area with cyclonic flow like one Big Gyre of Lake Effect over the far Eastern Pacific Ocean.  According to the 120hr GFS, the pryor short wave coming town the pike has a bit more over water trajectory too. (Monday Night/Tuesday)  so there may be a bonus of snowfall with the Monday night/Tuesday system, with still light amounts possible, but more than the dustings we have been getting the past few days. (Remember, the light category is 1 to 6 inches)  We may get most of that, with the Monday night, into Tuesday NW slider.

There is going to be a big pattern change, the next weekend. With the MJO into phase 6 and then 7, a subtropical jet may develop and head for the coast of California around the 20th/21st.  It would be associated with an AR.   However, the big question is, will it penetrate the west coast and add to our snow pack? Will there be positive vorticity action and some cooler air following the STJ.

If the MJO stays strong into phase 7 then 8, a blocking high may set up over AK (-EPO) then its time to Pineapple Up…

Not certain yet….just something to look for…..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)