February 14th….Happy Valentine day!!

I am not going to post anymore this week so have a nice holiday…..

Some thoughts……

“March Madness” is not only a term used in college basketball.  It is a term that I use in climatology for the month of March.  There is a reason why March comes in like a lion and leaves like a lamb, as a full strength pacific jet barreling east through the north pacific in February and into March, weakens the second half of the month of March.  We get lots of cut off lows later in March and into April off the west coast. And Stronger CAPE!!…  Convective Available Potential Energy!  The sun is higher in the sky and the convective process is increasing!

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I am sure that the anomalously stagnated convection over the tropics of the far western Indian Ocean had something to do with our extra cold January. After all, the -IOD was record breaking over the Indian Ocean and contributed to the very dry conditions, causing  massive fires in Queens Land, loss of life, property and all the little creatures that made up that beautiful area.

There are only 2 more weeks left of Meteorological winter, as March 1st is the first day of meteorological spring.  This has nothing to do with the Calendar or even astronomy.  It is simply that Winter is now on the wain….
From the CPC’s 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks, the last two weeks of February are forecasted to be quite dry.  This mornings GFS looked promising for a change early next week, however, the EURO as it ran on its heals, kept the pattern right where is has been, with the next system, deepening into the Great Basin. This will bring little weather other than cooling, snow showers and of course wind.  There was a teaser this morning of a small low off the Monterrey coast in last nights GFS run, but that idea has been shelved for the time being. Hopefully it will be back?

I have been looking for “the change”!  I was head faked last month when the MJO was forecasted to go from phase 7 to 8.   I waited as eagerly as the MJO was forecasted into 8 and the whole thing just fell apart in phase 7, left to die in the circle of death.  It was  disappointing but here we go again!

On the positive side, lets look at some teleconnection signals for early March, as if we are going to get some serious snowfall, it will have to come next month and April.

  • The MJO RMM1 and RMM2 Phase Space with the NCEP models, show an excursion into Phase 8 during week 2. That often, but as we know from last January, not always, can lead to the -EPO and -WPO teleconnection. IE high latitude blocking over AK, and/or the Bering Sea.  Blocking in that region often, but not always, leads to a storm track into CA in Winter or Spring.  It’s the amplification of the eastern pacific high, followed by retrogression, resulting in the under cutting of the westerlies into the west coast.  The most likely time for this to happen this time, is during the first week of March because of the forecast.
  • Support:
  • Looking at the newly updated ECMWF weeklies ensemble just released this afternoon.   There is a transition similar to the one discussed above.
  • The teleconnection charts show an -EPO in the EC Weeklies ensembles, March 3rd through the 6th. Additionally there is a -WPO teleconnection which develops blocking further west February 29th through the 12th of March. Furthermore, the -AO goes negative, according to the EC weeklies, March 3rd through the 6th briefly, (High Pressure over the Arctic) forcing more cold air south. These are all positive signs. that may lead to the undercutting of the pacific jet into California, during that first week of March. The week 1 and 2 models have not picked up on it yet. Keep you fingers crossed for the first week of March turning wet for CA.

In the meantime, have a great Washington’s Birthday holiday!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

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February 11th update:

Pattern of persistence looks likely to continue for the next few weeks, with no sign of change before the very end of the month.  Today’s CFSv2 Forecast of Weekly Climate Anomalies show the 500mb mean negative height anomaly centered over the Great Basin and Rockies, pretty much where it has been most for the winter. At the same time, the Eastern Pacific high is nosed into CA, preventing storms from moving on shore  Furthermore, there is good MJO support for this pattern with phases 6 and 7.  Additionally, looking at the 500mb European Weekly means from yesterday, it is apparent that the same long wave positions are likely, pretty much through the end of the month.

The good news is that there is a big change in the pattern forecasted by both the EC and the CFSv2, for the first two weeks of March. The Euro, puts the long wave between CA and Nevada which opens the door to the pacific for wet storms. The CFSv2 shows even more details with a -EPO. (Blocking High pressure over Alaska and the GOA), forcing an undercutting pattern of the Westerlies into CA.

The details should begin to show up in the Week 2 models, by the 3rd week of February if this is going to happen.

Keeping good thoughts!

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Strong Gusty ENE winds raked the upper elevations Sunday with gusts to 145 MPH recorded. The upper low was over Northern Baja Monday AM and was expected to kick east Monday night across the south and Midwest this week. The system brought highs in Mammoth in town down to the low 20s Sunday and was followed by lows in the teens.

The Eastern Pacific High continues to be amplified off shore at about 135 to 140 west.  It has been there for several weeks. This initiates a dry pattern over the far west, but has been good for the Rocky Mountain ski areas. Weather systems have been dropping south over the Western Great Basin then splitting with the bottom of the trofs spinning up to the south of us.

OUTLOOK:

This looks to be another dry week. High temps will moderate by mid-week. However, another chilly inside slider brings colder temps, and possible snow showers by the weekend. There was a short wave that was digging a bit more to the west this Sunday, according to this mornings GFS operational guidance. That if verifies, it would bring light accumulation on Sunday. (3-6+ inches)  A lot depends upon the track of the Sunday Short wave. Again, the GFS this morning seems to want to develop it a bit more to the west. However the EURO is not that convincing. So unless the EC becomes more in sync, I am staying with persistence.  (IE Dry)

Have a great week and if the pattern becomes more encouraging the next few days for the end of the week, the Dweebs will give you the details on that.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………..:-)