Tuesday May 26th Update

This Morning’s GFS shows the Cut-Off Low shifting further east before turning northward Thursday.  Should this new track of the Cut Off verify,  this puts the favored NE quad of the Upper Cut Off far enough south over CA  to bring upper divergence over the our portion of the sierra Friday afternoon. The timing also coincides with max afternoon heating. (00z Saturday)  This raises the question whether Mammoth will have scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening due to the change in track of the cut off.  This is different than today’s convective forecast, which is more like a typical summer like thunderstorm pattern due to the warm up in process.  More later………



The heat will build in the high country the next 3 to 4 days as a strong upper ridge quickly builds over California. The upper ridge is actually getting super charged by a cut off low that will be quasi stationary the next 36 hours west of Baja before it begins to lift NE toward the Northern CA coast later Thursday. The action of the low provides an increase of heights at 500MB and also some moisture being drawn up from Mexico.  Strong surface heating along with areas of surface convergence will drive isolated thunderstorms over the Sierra the next few days.  Tomorrow Tuesday looks especially good for some high based storms near the Glass Mt ENE of Mammoth later in the afternoon.   This heat wave will be record setting with highs in Mammoth and the Owens Valley eclipsing the old records for the dates set back in 2003. This Wednesday through Friday period will be the warmest days for the Owens Valley and Tuesday and Wednesday in the Mammoth Area..  Bishop will experiences highs between 100 and 103 and Mammoth 80 to 83 degrees. It will pull back into 90sand 70s respectfully over the weekend. Isolated Thunderstorms are possible through Friday in the high country… Those storms will shift more to the north over the weekend as the upper cut of moves on shore just north of the Bay Area.