10:00AM Wednesday the 4th of November….

Not much change to the forecast other than the Sunday system may be a little colder.   System one is slowing a bit which is a good point. Most of the precip will be behind the front.  CRFC is painting between 4 and 5 tenths between Huntington Lake and Yosemite.  That’s good for at least 5 inches of snowfall over the crest from storm one. Storm 2 is more of an inside slider type and so the crest usually does better than the west side.   All in all we may end of with around 12 to 15 inches on top of the Mountain by Sunday night.   However…theres still time to adjust.  Remember, the 2nd system is colder and snow to water ratio’s will be higher Sunday and Sunday night.   It will really be cold too with highs in the 20s on Sunday!! Lows in the single digits.   More unsettled weather next week!

Dr Howard and trhe Dweebs……………………………:-)


Although the details have yet to be ironed our as far as snowfall amounts on Mammoth Mt,  it does appear that at least light amounts of snowfall will occur this weekend and there could be more.  Light amounts (1-6) inches. Moderate  (6 to 18 inches)

  1. The Major PNA teleconnection goes negative for at least a week, meaning that a Trof in the mean is expected to set up over the inter mountain west, over the 6 to 10 day period. This pattern is highlighted by much colder than normal temperatures and light to possibly moderate snowfall. The key will be how much upper jet gets off the coast this weekend. At the moment, the first system is expected to be a fast mover and so only light amounts are expected. However, the second system is slower and colder.  It could very well end up being a good snow producer for the sierra. Again, these storms are going to be quite cold with the 2nd system capable of producing snow to water ratios of 15 to 1, over the higher elevations Sunday.

Model Differences;

  1. Where we are at the moment is that this mornings GFS jogged a bit east with its initial short wave and was quite fast on moving it through. That’s a drier scenario.  The Euro seems to be more consistent with plenty of off shore upper jet support.  As for-mentioned, the 2nd system for Sunday seems more interesting today.

Pattern Change and Teleconnection;

  1. Change in the PNA teleconnection to negative through mid month, suggests that these weekend storms are not likely to be the last and that more snowfall is possible that following week.   Again, it is too soon to take a guess at how much we may get….  Better visibility on that subject by this Wednesday.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………..:-)