Archive for December, 2020

Beautiful Weekend shaping up with above normal temperatures at resort levels and Pogonip fog in the valleys…..Cold inside slider to bring chilly weather Tuesday and Wednesday with as possible dusting Tuesday……Snowfall chances increase Christmas weekend….

It is a spectacular weekend here in the high country with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s….High pressure this weekend will give way to a cold inside slider Tuesday. High temps will cool a good 15 degrees Tuesday with a dusting of light snow expected.   The weather will warm up Wednesday into Christmas Day with fair weather.

A strong upper jet will be moving off the Asian continent this weekend headed for the west coast.  A weak weather system following the inside slider will become cut off from the westerlies mid week and may be picked up by the on-coming upper jet Christmas Day Eve. Although this system is weak, it may spread some showers into Southern CA Christmas Day Eve and even up through the Owens Valley. The upper jet that’s the kicker, will approach Central and Northern CA the following Saturday with a small Atmospheric River.  The longer range shows another system for the 27th and 28th that may bring additional snowfall to the Central and Northern Sierra…  Stay tuned, it appears that the pattern will becoming more active beginning the weekend following Christmas.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)

Storm Total Approaching 12 inches on Mammoth Mt……5 to 8 in town….Weather goes dry through Christmas….Pogonip Fogs Return this weekend over Lower Elevation Eastern Sierra Lake Basins

 

 

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December 18th

Storm Total 12 to 15 inches…

The Forecast is now dry through Christmas day.   Temperature inversions will allow Pogonip fogs to develop over nearby lakes from time to time when east winds are not breezing… High temps will move into the 40s this weekend with lows in the teens…..It is a dry 5 to 7 day outlook….

Grand Conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter occurs this Sunday and Monday evening after Sunset when both planets align as one.  Dont miss the best celest. show in nearly 800 years…..  The peak is Monday but you want to see it Sunday eve as you never know if it will be cloudy Monday…

WX discuession:

High pressure builds back over the west coast with light east winds at the surface and NW aloft. Ridge builds in strongly on Sunday with highs in the Owens Valley in the 60s and 45 to 50 in Mammoth by Sunday.  There will be partly cloudy skies Monday night and Tuesday as a weak wave pases through.  Next weather system capable of bringing moderate snowfall will be weekend after Christmas day. That one will have AR moisture. Another systems may give us more snowfall around News Years Eve….

 

The strong base state of La Nina and it strength, continues to affect the mid latitudes in a negitive way for California by distructivly interfearing with the various modes of tropical variability as they attempt to migrate or propagate eastward over and beyond the dateline….   La Nina will gradually weaken later this Winter and Spring….. Central and Southern CA precipitation should then increase respectivly…. Especially in late February, March and early April….

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)

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The Weather front that brought snowfall this morning was over Southern Ca and the upper level trof was moving through Eastern California……

 

Light Snowfall is expected in town today with light to low end moderate amounts on Mammoth Mt by mid morning Monday…..A moderate storm is expected Wednesday night and Thursday….

December 15th, 2020

Another light to moderate snow producing storm in on its way for Late Wednesday and Thursday….

Taking a good look at the next weather system,  It is not all the impressive QPF wise as compared to the last storm. The last system dropped between 10 amd 12 inches on top of Mammoth Mtn.  Although it is still possible to recieve close to that amount, CRFC QPF only shows .50 for Yosemite, which is 1/2 of last weekends storms forecast. Now I will say that this systems vertical motion field is more dynamic this far south as compared to the last Sat/Sun system. However, it moves through so quickly that it is out of here during the day Thursday.   I will look at it again tomorrow morning, At the moment my Est. is for 3 to 6 in town and 6 to 10 on the Mtn by Thursday evening.  It will be a breezier storm and there will be a 3 to 6 hour period of mod to heavy snowfall Thursday AM.  Snowfall amounts on Highway 395…..1 to 3 inches.

The NWS has a Winter Storm Watch for Wednesday night, for the 12 hour period ahead.  That may be a bit much for Southern Mono County….

Medium Range;

The storm track shifts north again to the Pacific North West this weekend with two short waves into Washington and OR.  Friday night and Sunday is the timing for them.  Next week, there is a splitting system that may bring us light snowfall Tuesday afternoon/Night.  Light snowfall is 1 to 6 inches….   Then down the road we ridge up for Christmas. Great Travel weather expected then for those who “have to” travel. In the longer range, there is still no signifacant tropical forcing. However, I will be attending the CPC briefing this morning.  So if there are any changes in the tropics that would modulate the westerlies, I will report….

As we all know, it will be very risky traveling and visiting this holiday….Especially since the Virus is spreading so rapidly…..Please take all precautions to be safe……The Dweebs will most likey be hunkering down in Mammoth throughout the Holidays.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………………. 🙂

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With the Jet Stream to our north, the current storm system is expected to bring warm air advection type snowfall to our area today, tonight through Monday. Although this is not a major storm, the weather will bring travel restrictions with snowfall amounts in the 1 to 3-inch range on Highway 395. Additional amounts of snowfall are possible in the Town of Mammoth with 4 to 7 inches possible and 8 to 12 inches over the higher elevations of the Sierra through the same time period. The high temperature today in Mammoth so far was 34 degrees at 9:30AM. It was 29 at 10:00AM after the snow started. The forecasted high today is 42. The low tonight is projected to be 14F.
The wave will be through by 4:00AM Monday, however a couple of vort centers on the back side of the trof will continue residual showers into the day Monday. A short-wave transitory ridge moves in Monday night into Tuesday AM.

Medium Range:
As chatted about in earlier discussions, Strong surface cyclogeneses off the coast of Japan yesterday Saturday into this morning has amped the pattern with propagation of energy expected to come through Wednesday night and Thursday. This should result in a decent storm later Wednesday night into Thursday. This storm has the capability of bringing moderate amounts of snowfall to Mammoth Mt this Thursday with amounts in the 12 to 18-inch range. Beyond that time frame, it looks pretty quiet until a hand full of days before New Year’s.
La Nina is peaking now……Gradual weakening is expected beginning this January.

Long Range Model European shows some big storms in January!

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)