Archive for January, 2021

Series of Storms are knocking on the Sierra Front with Cold Systems making their way down the coast….Then Bottling Up/Stalling over the state early next week….Better progressive pattern later next week….

1-22-2021 Update

Models trending a bit wetter for the first system.  It is not wet by any means but my get a few more inches of snow out of it.

Here are the Dweebs best guesses….

Friday night into Saturday, 1 to 3 inches in town, 3 to 6 on the mountain by Saturday PM

Sunday night into Monday night looks like a moderate storm with 3 to 6 in town and 6 to 12 on the mountain.

The Tuesday night through Thursday storm is the “Mother Lode” with 2 to 3 feet in town and 3 to 5 feet on the mountain beginning Tuesday night next week into Friday AM.  .  Another storm is in the Cards for Sunday now.  Total preliminary QPF for snowfall through the end of the month IE the morning of Feb1st is between “6 to 10 feet” on Mammoth Mt.

Remember this is preliminary………. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING…..;-)

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Although there is no tropical forcing from the MJO this go around, Mid and Upper Latitude forcing promisses to bring light snowfall amounts from the first system, Moderate snowfall from the second and even Mod to Heavy amounts from the mid week system expected later Wednesday into Frid…Next week. The QPFs from both GFS and ECMWF are simular showing snowfall of 1 to 3 inches .(30) Friday Night into Saturday, then about an 1.00 inch for the Sunday Night through Tueday AM period.  (That system for early next week is very cold and showery) There will be high snow to water ratios and the potential for 10 to 15 inches over the upper elevations…. 5 to 10 inches in town. S/W ratio (15:1)  The mid week system is a horse of a different color with model simulations trending wetter now. I will focus more on the mid week system this weekend……Hope it continues to show up in the medium range for next week.

More storms are possible through the end of the month, however, the Euro-Model cuts it off after the end of January while the GFS keeps the hits right on coming into the first week of February. ( I have to say that personally……It is unnerving to see a pattern like this not supported by MJO forcing).   So lets hope it works out!

 

I will update in the AM……………….

 

 

The Dweeber………………:-)

Retrogression in process with first in series of systems initiating a strong Mono Wind Event for Tuesday…..Much cooler weather on the way!

After several days of beautiful weather, big changes are coming to our weather pattern. Currently, as expected, retrogression of the Eastern Pacific High is in progress.  The first system will be headed in Monday AM with some snow showers and another one fast on its heals for late Monday night into Tuesday night.  The Tuesday system will bring very strong ENE winds to the sierra crest. An upper low will form rapidly over Nevada and move over the sierra crest  Northeast to  Southwest.  Gusts in the 150 to 160 range not out of the question as the jet touches down. This is a very similar scenario when a “Mono Wind Event” blew down thousands of trees just west of the sierra crest, from west of Mammoth Mt north to Tioga Pass.  This event may reach further north… Its important to note that damaging winds do not occur in the Town of Mammoth from this pattern as well as many lower elevation areas east of the crest.

Beyond the Mono Wind event, the whole idea of retrogression is that each successive storm drops south, further west with time, so that they will eventually have over water trajectory. Over water trajectory that benefits the central sierra is expected as early as the next Friday, with another one that develops further west the following Monday and another later during that last week of January. This pattern is not suggesting any “AR” type scenarios as the short waves travel mainly North to south with little fetch.

Our weather that has been very warm for this time of the year is going to get cold with highs lowering into the 30s. That’s a 20 to 30 degree drop. It appears that the cold weather will be here to stay, for at least a week once it sets in.

 

More Later……

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

Strong Ridging Develops the next two days with very mild temperatures for the high country…..Highly Amped ridge will begin to slowly retrograde early next week with cooling….Weather to remain dry through the 21st with a major change in the pattern taking place over the following weekend….

Our Weather in Mammoth is way too nice for the middle of January!  The Dweebs were in short sleeve shirts today as highs approached 60 degrees in Town.  Lows at night are now above freezing….. It will be warmer the next few days as the current ridge Trof pattern peaks out.  Remarkably,  It is quite unusual that our high temperatures in Mammoth are about the same as Reno, NV. However, that is testament to strong ridging in January with strong temperatures inversions as well.

Our Ridge Pattern peaks out Friday, with highs in the low to mid 60s!  Next week should cool down a bit.   As the eastern pacific ridge begins to slowly back up, cooler air will begin to spill southward through the Great Basin., Monday and Tuesday, High temperatures will be back down into the 40s next week with nights seasonally in the teens.

Pattern in Transition:

I just had a look at the 12Z ECMWF Ensemble, 5 day means.   Its a good guide in telling you where the pattern is going and how it will effect a particular area, weather wise.  The Eastern Pacific Ridge is currently between 130 and 125west. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, its positive tilt and height anomaly will give our state an exceptionally beautiful few days with near record highs Thursday and especially Friday.   Looking at next weeks weather, the ridge in the 5 day means continues to retrograde westward. Its expected that it shifts west about 1000 miles from its current position by next Friday the 22nd. The long wave Trof backs west as well to the Rockies. This initiates the very beginning of a storm track with NW sliders and a possible unsettled period that following weekend. Temperatures will be much cooler. As we go through that 4th week and final days of January, the eastern pacific ridge, as progged by the ECMWF, retrogrades west to 165 west.  If that is the case, there will be a lot of storminess between the following weekend and the end of the month.

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)