Thursday 4/22/2021

Quick Update about weather changes this weekend and Fishing Opener…

  1. No wind advisories expected for Mono County Saturday, however, SW winds will come up overnight with gusts 15 to 30 MPH with stronger gusts expected in the late morning and afternoon.   It is likely to be choppy out on Lake Crowley, however, at this time, not a significant wind event…..Saturday will be dry…..
  2. Sunday is expected to be cold and snowy with gusty winds.  Snowfall amounts will be a good 12 to 18+ inches on Mammoth Mt, by Monday.  Even the town could have between 5 and 8 inches. However, the roads are warm and it will take time during the snowfall for them to freeze up. When they do, they will become very very icy!!!!  So slow down when driving Sunday night and Monday…

More later….



9:38AM Update:

  1. Typhoon Surigae was the strongest typhoon in the month of April in the Western Pacific. strongest sustained winds of (190 MPH) At one point, its winds increased 105 MPH in 36 hours!  Went from Cat 2 to 5.  Wind Waves up to 75 feet were observed. The Storm is in its weakening phase now and will begin to turn toward the NE/E this Thursday AM as it winds down. Moisture from Surigae will get picked up by the westerlies. Storm becomes extra tropical this Thursday as it rapidly looses its moisture to the westerlies.
  2. MJO is still in Phase 7 and forecasted to cross into Phase 8 by this Sunday.  As suspected, a formable Kelvin Wave has formed east/west of 120E. Westerly wind bursts are continuing over the western pacific.
  3. SEE:  
  4. At the moment, moisture from Surigae is forecasted to lie, well to the north of the Hawaiian islands this Sunday. It appears that the Sunday-Monday system will have a small tap of subtropical moisture to work with, bringing possibly a foot+ of snow to Mammoth Mt Sunday Night and Monday. The real AR associated with Surigae is coming in, in back of that 1st storm.
  5. Here are the unknowns at this time.  The depth of the second storm for Thursday the 29th will have the “Potential” to bring a lot of precip to portions of the west coast. Odds are, the main thrust will be to the north of us, as the global models lift the upper jet into Southern Oregon. However; AR moisture usually flows in under the upper jet. Thus Northern CA may do quite well. This AR is rather broad by Thursday AM, the 29th, extending from Northern CA to Central CA.  Its strength at extension eastward beyond the coast is somewhat questionable at this time.  I think that all of this is subject to timing. The variables involve the upper high over AK and how fast it shifts west to Eastern Russia.  At the moment, the global models have the upper high over AK this Sunday. That is good positioning for a large scale Trof for into CA. The next storm is the one that carries the bulk of Surigae moisture. It arrives Thursday the 29th with the Subtropical Jet into Central CA.  500mb Heights and 500mb/1000mb thicknesses are fairly high so snow levels will be too.  This is all a week+ away. So lots can change.   The best part of all this is that we have good support from the MJO and its composites.


It will be a beautiful day today in Mammoth with highs in the low 60s….Later Tuesday into Early Thursday….A couple of weak systems of low pressure will combine with daytime heating to provide the chance of showers with snow showers in the upper elevations. Expect fair weather Friday and Saturday with warmer weather….lows 20s, highs in the low 60s.

MJO strong in phase 7 and expected to remain strong into Phase 8.  This presents an interesting Conundrum. The puzzle is in regards to the forecast so late in the Winter/Spring rainy season, especially one that has been so dry.

The MJO; Madden Julian Oscillation is a formable modulator of the westerlies, especially during the winter season into early March. (OLR) Outgoing Longwave Solar Radiation near the dateline was weakened dramatically this year, due to stronger than normal trades this past Fall and Winter; associated with LA Nina. Looking at the Hovmuller OLR time series; ( select OLR mode, you can see the absence of OLR near the dateline (shaded in Brown) all Winter, up until early April. Just to the West, there was strong OLR stationary about 140E.  The stronger than normal, lower level easterly winds of La Nina have concentrated the warm water, warmer than normal in this region. Once the MJO pushed into that region, it spawned the second strongest Typhoon on record in April, now near the Philippines. Looking at the MJO phase space; It shows the MJO remaining very strong, now in phase 7, into phase 8.  This transition geographically, at this strength has a significant teleconnection to west coast weather in the Winter. However, it will be late April by the time it is in Phase 8. Will the EAJ extend to the west coast?  Will there be an “AR”?

This is going to be quite interesting, as to if the East Asian Jet gets modulated to the west coast.  Additionally, there will be a ton of moisture from the remains of Surigae, that “May” get entrained in the upper flow, and find its way to California the end of this week.

Super Typhoon Surigae,  just missed the Philippines. Surigae had/has winds of at least 185MPH as it was or is a Cat 5 storm.  The Storm is recurving to the north now and then eventually east…..Lets hope it all comes together with beneficial rains to our state, about Sunday, Monday and Tuesday!


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)