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Archive for May, 2021
Fabulous Holiday Weekend shaping up with above normal temperatures and possibly a few Summer Like Thunderstorms Saturday Afternoon……Summer Like Temperatures take over Sunday with record highs expected by Tuesday in the low 80s…..Looks like one more cool down later in June before Summer Pattern Sets in……..
Thursday May 27, 2021
The Deer Herd is in town, please slow down and give them a break!!
June 1st 11:00AM
Just an update on the pattern this week. Near or record high temperatures are expected for Mono County today through Friday. This means in this pattern, that highs will average 79 to 81 degrees which are more seasonal for mid to late July, the warmest time of the year here in the high county. Summerlike high based thunderstorms are expected to begin as early as Wednesaday afternoon with Thursday late afternoon the most likley time for a Thundershower. This Summer tease will end Sunday with windy weather and a cooling trend that will carry into the following week. A long wave trof will desend upon California, beinging wind, cooling with the possibly of showers and or Thunderstorms. Below normal temps lare possible in this pattern next week. Freezing early morning lows are possible as well. As a note, both 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks are cooler than normal.
Longer Range;
The aformentioned trof is expected to lift out during mid month. Much warmer weather may return during the 3rd week of June.
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For Memorial Day Weekend, you could not ask for a better weather pattern. In the beginning, a flat ridge builds over the area. That same ridge really amplifyes later in the weekend for some super warm temps. The upper ridge is expected to hold over California through mid week next week, then weaken toward that following weekend. Highs in Mammoth will climb to the mid 70s by Sunday with lows mostly in the 40s by then. Daytime high are expected to break 80 by Tuesday. The pattern is not with out some prospects for rain. The region will be under some unstable air Saturday afternoon that may bring some summer like showers or even some Thunder. Our ridge peaks out Tuesday into Wednesday next week. By Thursday, some height falls will allow for some breezy weather and some high clouds. Highs will still remain in the 70s, and may to hold into that following weekend.
Both the ECMWF and GFS has strong height falls the end of next week into week 3. This is the 2nd week of June and is more of an interseasonal outlook, (risky at best!) It shows a couple of chilly trofs headed our way, early during the 2nd week of June. Chilly, breezy weather with possibly some showers? Snowshowers? 🙂
The even longer range weeks 3 and 4 as pure speculation, has height rises with the Summertime signeture of the continential high developing over the four corner states for Summers best and hottest WX. The CPC is expecting a better monsoon Summer! We’ll Take it!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………:-)
Weather Pattern has become Decisively Cooler and at times wetter through Months End……La Nina is offically Dead according to the CPC
Sunday May 16, 2021
The Trend is a Weatherman’s Friend and model trends point toward a cooler period over the next few weeks. All models in agreememt in moving the current upper low out of California this Evening while a rather cool airmass keeps unstable air over our area through Monday. Expect both highs and Lows to remain below normal, in the 50s, with the possibility of showers and thunderstorms over the High Sierra into Monday.
Within the medium range, a belt of westerlies approaches the Pacific Northwest and buckels south Wednesday, causing increasing winds in the high country. By Thursday afternoon there is an increasing chance of showers into the night. As is the case this time of the year, upper trofs like to become cut-off, and next weekends long range outlook for the far west will be no exception. This leaves Mammoth Lakes in a cool showery pattern .
Appearently, there are a series of these short wave Trofs dropping in from the GOA that will bring periods of unsettleled weather to the Sierra, possibly through months end. Stay tuned as there will be breaks in between systems. Memorial Weaked is too far to speculate on. However, the pattern seems to want to continue in this fashion.
High temperatures will swing as much as 20 degrees the next 7 days with lows mostly in the upper 20s and 30s.
Climate:
The Climatic Predction Center has offically called La Nina Dead. Let hope it stays that way. We need ENSO to allow the MJO to strongly circumnavigate the globe, for periods of big weather next winter!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………:-)
Warmer Days through Friday with Unsettled Weekend followed by warm dry weather early next week….
Tuesday May 11, 2021
The Weather pattern across the CONUS and off into the Atlantic will become more progressive toward the weekend. Initially, there is a decently amped ridge that is spreading over CA at the moment. It will result in some 7 to 10 degrees of warming through Friday. High Temps in Mammoth have been in the low to mid 60s of late. Upper 60s is expected today with low 70s Wednesday through Friday. Lows at night will be mostly in the 30s.
The upper 500mb Ridge that is building in, will succumb to flattening early in the weekend due to the aforementioned Progressiveness of the pattern down stream. This will allow some short wave energy, however weak, to drop south over Western CA to a position Just WSW of Mammoth Lakes by Saturday afternoon. Even trough there is little cooling with this system, The very strong daytime heating of a sun angle much like very early August, will initiate daytime convection, and combined with weak upper divergence to pop some showers and thunderstorms, mainly Saturday afternoon with a slight chance on Sunday afternoon. The weak upper low will exit through AZ Sunday night leaving a Sunny and warmer day for Monday.
The Models are mixed on the weather the 2nd half of next week. The GFS has troughy possibly unsettled weather and the EC nicer weather. Will update next week.
Note for Southern CA weather on a climate scale: The remains of La Nina will be felt over the Southern California Beaches for sometime. Later this Spring and Summer will offer more June Gloom days than normal, as the Sea Surface temperature’s remain anomalously cold.
Once the CA deserts turn hot, expect a much longer period of June Gloom, well into Summer until the waters off the coastal sections warm up.
