July 3rd:


New 12Z Saturday GFS still shows Scorching Heat for next weekend in California as the dreaded 500mb 600DM isoheight invades CA Saturday into Sunday…  Very warm weather to return to the Pacific NW and BC as well.

More later on this developing pattern….  Thunderstorms in the Mammoth area for the most part will be isolated at best much of next week.  Highs in Mammoth 80 to 85, possibly climbing to 90 by next weekend.

The Dweeber…………..



Skys were over developed this morning delaying convection. Thunderstorms are one again developing over Mono County with rain, thunder and lightining.  Another repeat is expected Thursday, then some drying taking place to the south of us working northward during the day on Friday. Thunderstorms should they occur Friday should occur later in the afternoon or even evening.   The holiday weekend looks warm in the high county with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Lows at night will be in the upper 40s and low 50s.   Its what happens next week which is of interest.   Models are converging on another heat wave developing by Mid Week.  ECMWF has heights in the very upper 590s just off shore as a ridge builds in. This is a dry pattern with Mono Zypher afternoon breezes.   The GFS has 500 mb heights building up into the low 600s over the Great Basin by weeks end. 1000-500mb Thicknesses push up into the High 580 and even low 590s.  Scorcher!!   This heat wave should the models continue their trend, Develops beginning mid week next week, through the next weekend and beyond. All time records again in jeopardy later next week.  Climo for warmest week is early 2nd week of July.  All time record for Bishop was set in 2010, July 10th. 110.   Well see what happends next weekend..


More later this week………………


The Dweeber……………………:-)


June 27th  Update:

Just a quick update;  Fire weather watch for Monday and Tuesday for Mono County issued by the National Weather Service.

High based strong thunderstorms are expected to begin developing Monday into Tuesday. Dry lighting, (lighting outside of the rain shafts) will threaten our forests that are extreamly dry. strong outflow winds may whip up any fires that start, anyware, nearby thunderstorms. These first storms are not monsoon related.  As mentioned below, an easterly wave may, and now looking more likley to pump monsoonal flow and dynamics northward to add to Monday and Tuesdays atmospheric modifacational mositure.  Increasing wet thunderstorms mid to possibly late week are expected.   Stay tuned…..IT COULD BE A WILD WEEK, WEATHER WISE.




June 24th:
All meteorological eyes are focused upon the rare heat wave event set for the Pacific NW this weekend and into next week. There is the possibility of all-time record high temperatures in the 130+ years of record keeping by the NWS for that area. The all-time record high for Seattle is 103 in July. The fact that this event is happening in June is exceptional. The pattern will challenge existing record highs with temps at or above. In Oregon state, some inland areas could have record highs in the 110 to 115 range. NWS has hoisted excessive warnings for this weekend into next week. This is a deadly heat wave as many people do not have AC in their homes and night time temps will not recover anything close to normal.
Cause of Heat:
A strong negative height anomaly develops in response to a deep Aleutian Low taping Arctic Air which builds an excessively high amped ridge just off the Washington coast Friday. This strong positive height anomaly progresses inland over Southern BC and the Pacific NW this weekend and into early next week. Although the positive height anomaly weakens a bit by mid-week, the latest extended model guidance redevelops the ridge offshore again the following Friday, for a possible redux of the Pacific NW heat wave the following weekend. Of course, were talking 10 days out which is more fantasyland model wise, but worth keeping an eye-out for.

Mammoth Weather: (Extended) for this weekend and next week.

An extension of the system in the pacific NW will affect the far west as well, with off shore flow and high heights. This spells another heat wave for much of California. Highs in Mammoth will be in the low to mid 80s next week and Bishop, beginning this Sundaay, 103 to 107. The heat may last most of next week.

Of interest is a weak Easterly Wave as mentioned in the update below. This westward moving system is progged to be near Florida tomorrow Friday as it emerges from the Atlantic. The track takes it across the Gulf of Mexico to the east coast of Mexico south of Brownsville, Tx Sunday AM.  As it tracks across Mexico, it picks up monsoon moisture along the way from Old Mexico. By Monday evening, it is located near Nogales, Sonora.  This feature taps high PWATs both from the Mexican Monsoon and added PWATs from a tropical storm west of Puerto Vallarta this Monday, that feeds the Sea of Cortez of PWATs of between 2.00 and 3.00+ inches. Although that kind of PWATs never makes it into AZ or CA, there maybe a strong surge of mositure from this wave next week as high as 2.00 off the coast of So-Cal.  The wave continues to progress toward Hawaii later next week.  This mositure surge may push all the way up to OR/WA state border by Thursday or Friday before the holiday weekend.  Additionally, the Easterly Wave may spin up a weak subtropical low off the Southern CA coast by Mid Week, helping to channel this mositure northward.

Thoughts, I have to say that I can not remember a pattern like this in June into early July ever!   What is so interesting is not only is the Monsoon progged so early, but look at the Synoptic height field….Its crazy!  You have an intense large scale positive  mid latitude height field over the Pacific NW while the easterlys well underneath are so robust for this time of the year.  We may get into quite a thunderstorm pattern before the holiday weekend; Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Possibly some good wetting rains? Stay tuned!!




Although it is our second heat wave for the month of June, it’s our first heat wave for the season of Summer! June may go down as one of the warmest on record out west, as more record highs are expected early next week.  As far as records go, it is unfortunate that we are still working under the climatology with a period ending in the year 2016, as there has been so many record highs since then.

Western Weather Week 1

An upper trough west of Central CA will slowly weaken as it progresses to the coast.  Upper divergence will bring mainly dry thunderstorms to the Sierra, especially Thursday. This weak system is responsible for our enhanced Zephyr winds as well as the cooler and extremely dry conditions.  By the weekend, the big positive height anomaly west of Washington state will be the driver of the weather out west as it moves on shore Saturday and Sunday. The big upper height anomaly will then develop a bit further south over the far west with summer heat increasing in California and Nevada, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Those days look to be scorchers for the Eastern CA deserts. The longer-range charts do not look much different through July 4th.

The GFS looks a bit different with some ensemble members taking an easterly wave across old Mexico, then off the Southern CA Coast during the first week of July.   That would spell some relief with some rainfall, however, it’s a long shot at this point.

Again, 1st look at the July fourth weekend looks very warm with thunderstorms in the high-country during week 2.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)