June 9th

Just an update during this transition from Spring to Summer.

Everything on track for the short and medium range. However. the following weekend of the 18th, 19th and 20th look pretty hot throughout the Owens Valley and very warm here in the high country, if the week two models work out.

Here are some records to think about during that time frame, mainly for the Bishop AP. As usual, record keeping was not so great for Mammoth in the past 20 years. I use an *algorythm for a station that mimics Mammoth that is lower, but further north that works fairly well.

Anyone care about Mammoth Record keeping for the future?  An automated recording system is only about $1M for an AWOS system.   I may be biased, but think that it is worth while.  🙂

Records:    Bishop     18th    19th   20th   21st

……………………………………107     107    108    108

………………..*MMH        86       85      85      85


If this heat wave does appraoch, tie or break old records, that will be pretty remarkable as added to the heat earlier this month, we’ll be headed toward a very warm June in the record books!

BTW; the all time record for Bishop was set 7/10/2010 (110F). This might be the year to break that record!


Tuesday the 8th

Just an update on the latest 12 runs today on the longer term. All appear to be in consenus now in lifting next weeks trough north of California.  This means that this major cool down is likely our last of Spring.

As a note, this Thursday AM frost is likley our last at 8000 feet.  Lower elevation valleys along highway 395 may have additional frosts prior to the weekend.


Warm weather is on the way this weekend and beyond…..Hot in the Owens Valley next week.


As indicated in my interseasonal outlook a few weeks ago, there will be one more significant push of chilly air into the Sierra this week and into the middle of the following week. This comes on the heels of record breaking heat over Eastern CA.. It should be noted that not only were there a series of high temperature record days in the High Sierra and Owens Valley; there were also records of the warmest temperatures both day and night ever recorded, so early in the year for the Owens Valley at the Bishop Airport. These records go back to the late 19th Century, IE over 120+ years. The warmest day was Thursday the 3rd, as the high at the Bishop AP reached 104.
Today, a cool down is in process for the high country, with highs expected in the low to mid 70s in Mammoth Sunday. At the Bishop AP, the high temperature forecast is still expected to reach 100, one more time, just shy of the 102 record for the date. Lows at night were in the 50s at resort levels and 60s in the Owens Valley this morning….This will all change for the upcoming new week.
WX Discussion:
A major change in the pattern is taking place this week as a late Spring Upper Trof descends out of the Gulf of AK and progresses through CA  early Thursday AM. Up at 500MB, over 200 Meters of height falls are expected between today and Thursday morning. The main trof axis comes through as soon as Midnight Wednesday  with the coolest air into our region Thursday morning. About 20 to 25 degrees of cooling is expected through the period. Expect highs in Mammoth by Wednesday in the mid-50s. The passage of the Trof will leave a cold morning in Mammoth with lows in the upper 20s.  However, high Sierra valleys such as Bridgeport and Long Valley will dip down into the low 20s. This chilly air may hang around for a while. The ECMWF and GFSX shows these valleys in the 20s and 30s on and off through the following Tuesday the 15th. The Owens Valley will cool down as well next week, however temps will remain above freezing with even the coldest spots like Dixon Lane, only reaching down into the mid to upper 30s by next Thursday AM.
Worth mentioning, this cool down will be associated with some strong winds Tuesday into Thursday AM. Wind advisories are not out of the question as well as fire weather concerns.
On the bright side, warming will move in quickly the following weekend with seasonal to possibly above normal temps expected. However, at the sametime, another trof will attempt to press forward to the coast, while a subtropical continential high develops over the four corner states.   My bet is that the continental high will win out given the time of year and as such, the next trof will either stall out, or its upper jet will round its base, lifting it to the northeast away from Central CA.  The Summertime continental high sets up, building north and shifting west in July, for one Hot Summer out west and heightened Fire concerns…. Sierra Thunder is also expected to become more common this Summer. Enjoy the last hand full of days of cool weather in Eastern CA as hot weather is on the way and soon!!
ENSO IS Neutral this Summer, and may stay that way through the Fall….. Early Winter?? We’ll be Ready for it!! 🙂


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)