SATURDAY 9/11/2021



Upper Trough continues to lift out with a drying trend.  Two more weak trofs will pass through Sunday PM and Monday PM.  Expect a light to moderate Zephyr during these trof passages then light breezes Tuesday afternoon.  Stronger breezes are possible Wednesday and Thursday.  Expect 3 to 4 degrees of warming today and another 3 to 4 degrees of warming Sunday. Highs mostly in the mid 70s through Thursday.

Pattern Change expected next weekend. 

This mornings 12Z GFS Model deterministic run was much stronger with the Upper Jet into Pacific Northwest next Friday, then sagging it south into Northern CA Sunday into early Monday morning the 20th. The GFS and ECMWF Ensemble’s are not reflective of this mornings GFS 12Z Run’s strength yet.  Will have to monitor this pattern change this next week for the following weekend. Currently, the possibilities offer anything from breezy cooler weather to windy weather beginning Friday afternoon through the following weekend. The mornings GFS also suggests first Northern Sierra Dusting next Sunday night. That at this point is a long shot as again, current ensemble runs are not in agreement with the depth of that Trof. More model runs he upcoming new week will be needed to increase any confidence in the depth of the weather system.

As always stay tuned……..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………..:-)


Both ECMWF and GFS has a pattern change as we approach the Equinox, Wednesday the 22st of September. The pattern may start as early as the previous weekend. At the moment, strong winds and cooling is highlighted, but our first dusting is not out of the question.  Stay Tuned..


High temperature records continue to fall this week as the strong upper high from the weekend pushed into Utah today. The high temperature at the Bishop AP hit 104 for the 2nd day in a row breaking the old record of 100 set back in 1955. The high temperature in Mammoth Lakes hit 84 degrees both yesterday and today Wednesday. The track of this upper high will take it to New Mexico by Friday. SSE flow is once again juicing up the state with the chance of showers and possible Thunder both Thursday and Friday. It’s getting late for Monsoon Season here over the East Central CA. This may be the last of it, this far north. No doubt that some of that tropical storm moisture from off Baja will get entrained into the CA state for Thursday and into Friday. By Friday afternoon, SW flow will develop with gusty SW winds, and a drying trend will develop later in the day into Saturday. Highs will cool to the low 70s Thursday and Friday with more sunshine Saturday and Sunday for warmer days. A nice cool down is instore for the bishop areas as well, with highs cooling to the low 90s Friday.
It’s getting close to Fall and time to start watching the MJO. The “Week 2” outlook for the MJO shows pretty good amplification in phase four. In September, that means that cooler than normal weather is on the way, *later next week. The GFS is hinting at a pretty good trof at that time with strong winds. BTW…The EURO does not agree, so we’ll wait and see later this weekend to see what shakes out. CLIMO does show that we often get a chilly equinox storm around the 21st.


ENSO:  NCEP’s Seasonal climate forecast from CFSv2 is not behaving well with the latest modeling showing a trend toward a stronger La Nina.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………………….:-)