Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for January, 2022
Forecast Outlooks remain dry through the next two weeks…Encourging signs from Tropical forcing developing after Mid February……
Saturday January 29, 2022
Groundhogs Day>>>>= mid point of Winter
Here is an excerpt from the CPC on tropical forcing and the emergence of an MJO. I think that this is all positive in the long run for a productive pattern shift. However, It may not happen for 3 to 4 weeks out though.
From the climatic prediction center; CPC
There are some indications of a large-scale eastward propagating enhanced convective envelope that has moved from Africa to the Indian Ocean since mid-January; however, this signal is currently masked by remarkably strong ERW activity over the Indian Ocean. Over the Pacific, weak westerly anomalies over the east-central Pacific reflect a continued disruption of the atmospheric response to La Nina conditions, though trade winds have become increasingly enhanced near and west of the Date Line, which may be due in part to the emerging intraseasonal signal. Dynamical model MJO index forecasts are fairly consistent and show a rapid increase in amplitude over the Indian Ocean, which may reflect the emergence of the MJO signal from ongoing ERW disruption. By Week-2, many GEFS and ECMWF ensembles depict a “hairpin turn” of the RMM index, favoring a resumption of eastward propagation across the Maritime Continent. This sharply turning feature is frequently indicative of strong ERW activity modulating the MJO signal. In contrast, a growing number of alternate ensemble members show a slower evolving and higher amplitude signal over the Indian Ocean, which may be a response to Indian Ocean tropical cyclone activity. Based on these recent observations and dynamical model forecasts, the MJO is favored to become increasingly active over the next two weeks, and will likely play a role in tropical cyclone development, the orientation of the monsoon trough over the Maritime Continent, and potentially “the downstream midlatitude pattern”.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1/30/2022
I realize that this is very esoteric, so please bear with me.
Here is the CFS from earlier today. It shows a trough for the west coast for week 4, or the last week of February. This gives support to the idea of the potential of a storm cycle, beginning the very end of week 3 and the last week of February, like my last discussion..
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MJO Precip composites for February, Note phase 3 at JMA
left, which is wet for CA.
The Forecast and outlooks remain dry for the Mammoth area well into February. There is a cold Great Basin slider that may produce a few snow showers late Tuesday into Wednesday AM, It will be turning colder and windy Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter the upper ridge is expected to snuggle up against the west coast the following weekend for milder weather. The following week looks dry.
Lets all have some weather fun today by participating in a little long range experiment.
At the moment, according to both week one and week two global models, it all looks dry as far as the eye can see. However, there are some experimental tools that we can use to hypothesize a change to a wetter pattern some 3 to 4 weeks out.
In the Month of February, there is a strong signal associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation that teleconnects with precipitation over the state of California. The signal now in the circle forecasted by several models, with the above example using the JMA, (Japanese model) shows the MJO emerging into in Phase 3 of the Wheeler Hendon Phase space, toward next weekend. Phase 3 shows wet for California in February.
Below, the OLR with the Climate Forecast System suggests the emergence of MJO the end of the 3 week of February. Its possible that this signal may modulate the westerlies later in the month of February. Look for Retrogression as early as the end of the 2nd week of February with the development of a Pacific storm track toward the end of the 3rd week of February or just beyond. Again, this is just for fun. Let see how it all works out!
Coming into the Home Stretch of January….Crystal Balls anyone?
Monday January 24, 2022
1/28/2022
Hope on the Horizon…..
Here are some thoughts of mine that are encouraging about a pattern change for snowfall potential for the month of February.
As mentioned earlier, storms from the pacific are shut out for the foreseeable future.
The Eastern Pacific High must love the west coast because it is pretty much snuggled up against it! It will retrograde slightly Sunday into Monday and amplify then allow a cold Great Basin slider to bring Wind and cooling Monday night into Wednesday, followed by the progression of that ridge into the west coast the following weekend. The slider will bring unsettled WX with even the slight chance of a few flurries or light snow showers Tuesday/Ngt. Nights will cool to the single digits by early Wednesday AM.
The following weekend will be mild and dry with above normal temps.
Highs will continue to be in the 40s then upper 20s Tuesday then low 50s by the following weekend.
MJO:
Excluding the ECMWF model, the GFS and the JAMA models are showing the MJO emerging over the Indian Ocean later next week. The Wheeler phase space suggests phase 3. Looking at the “Hovmuller” OLR CFS” you can see the Possibility of a Significant MJO emerging, one that may retrograde our mid latitude pattern and amp the EP ridge much further west, between weeks 3 and 4. SEE Hovmuller time series graphics here along with OLR. The Green/ Blue shading near 120E is of note. That is significant I believe.
Timing would be in the week 3 range, or a transition around mid February The MJO precip composites for February in phase 3 are encouraging as well.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
I have had lots of folks asking me lately that, “is this the end of Winter”? What I say is that no, It’s not even February yet! Even so, folks are still having withdrawal’s from an intoxicating December, from more snowfall than they could remember! I have been posting the past week from a perspective of lots of back peddling! I realize that the Global forecast system, “GFS” has had the effect of getting the “Wet Foots” all excited about a big first week of February snowfall wise. I saw the QPF from the GFS last night, 2 to 3 feet next week, but I have not been buying into to it! For me, the big reason is that the MJO is stuck in the circle of death, meaning that; 1, Its very week and 2 Not supportive of a wet week next week at all! Of course, the MJO is not the only teleconnection that can force mid latitude circulation, however, it’s a big one and when you do not have the support of Old Julian and Madden, to me, your flying in a cloud without IFR. 🙂
Again, there have been several forecast model runs of the GFS that are/were exciting, but the Dweebs have not been biting. The European, has not been in its camp and for good reasons. The Dweebs are still looking at a pattern next week that will be cold, Potentially very windy, and yes, the possibility of some light snowfall, from what ever moisture there is, either coming down north to south through California or through the Great Basin, squeezed SW as upslope.
With all that said, the pattern potentially, will be very exciting wind wise! Mono Wind Event possible?…. Later in the week I will come up with snowfall guesstimates.
