January 17th


Both GFS and Euro ensembles are showing much more promise this morning of a stronger pacific undercutting pattern developing around the end of the month.  A lot needs to be worked out in the meantime. However,  AR moisture may come into play, confluent with a decent eastern pacific Trof. The Dweebs just about gave up hope until seeing this mornings ensemble runs. Also the GFS phase space is back on line to help with confidence building when we near the last week of the month.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………👍

Our January thaw will continue another 1 to 2 weeks now as high pressure aloft builds over the Pacific NW.   There is some hope that some undercutting of a weak branch of the westerlies may occur before months end. However, at this time, it is sketchy at best.  Tropical modes of variability are expected to remain weak with no real driving force seen at this time.  About the only ray of hope is surface cyclogenesis that may spin up, off the coast of Japan about the 24th that may propagate enough energy eastward for a weak system that would undercut the positive height anomaly by the 28th or 29th. The main upper height anomaly is expected to retrograde during the last week of the month.

In the meantime, expect on again, off again variable high clouds from a general upper level weakness in the mean,  off the Southern CA. Coast.   This has brought a lot of high clouds to our region the past several days and is expected to continue in this fashion through mid week.


Expect highs temperatures in Mammoth to range in the 40s with lows in the upper teens and twenties. It may be a bit milder next weekend as pressures aloft build even stronger. No important winds expected this upcoming week…..

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………….:-)