Models beginning to react to the upcoming change of season with the upper flow becoming more progressive across the pacific and the La Nina pattern of predominantly meridional flow becoming less frequent in our future.. Like the Fall, until La Nina sets in, the upper jet sags ever so further south, with early season precip for the high country. However, once the PV sets up and extends south in the east, the EPR sets up close to west coast,  periods of cold, wind and below normal precip along with periods of a cold upper trof over the inter mountain west.  Now that Spring is around the corner, we may be getting back into the pattern that reflects a westerly flow that is progressive.  Storms may now resume their trek into the west coast. However, in order to get them south into Central and Southern CA, the pattern will need to show rising 500MB Heights west of Hawaii.

There is beginning to be some support for this change in the week 2 global models; Additionaly, the MJO is forecasted into the Eastern Indian ocean and an increasing amount of surface cyclogenises is progged off the coast of Japan next week; and the Scripts AR site is showing an increase in Subtropical moisure making its way into the west coast during the week 2 period. These are all positive factors for an outlook for storminess.  For what ever it is worth, the week 2 models are hinting at a signifacant storm for the Central west coast around the Vernal Equinox weekend. 19th/20th of March.

Keeping good thoughts!!


The Dweeber………………..:-)


There is some remarkable air quality issues reported between Lone Pine and Olancha this afternoon. Looking at Airnow at 1:00PM; Keeler had PM 10 air quality counts of 439 at the Owens Dry Lake, Good time to be wearing those PM10 Masks!   Winds are 30 to 40mph out of the North.

Weather in Mammoth was cold aablyt 1:15pm, slightly breezy with highs in the upper 20s,  Winds NW 5 to 10MPH.

Forecast for Friday includes a warming trend. Expcet a high of 45 degrees with warming each day toward the mid 50s by Monday. It will be cloudy later in the weekend with breezy weather later Saturday into Sunday. The next system will be Tuesday from the west. Lots of high and mid level moisture but precipitation will be light as most forcing will be to our north.  The Last Day of Winter will be Saturday. The equainox arrives the following Sunday the 20th at 8:33AM.


Longer Range:

Looking at the GFS Ext. Ens [M] 0.5 7 day mean….The ensemble does retrograde the mean ridge position from the west coast westward, well past Hawaii. The ECMWF does to some degree as well, but not nearly as much.   I think that the idea is to slowly lower 500MB heights along the west coast beginning around the Equinox then through months end.  In that there is not likley to be the big stagnent east coast trof like this winter at that time, storms may have an easier time getting in here, before the deserts heat up.   More later…..


Dr Howard and the Dweebs….:-)