With the upper jet pushing back up in the the pacific NW and moderate 500mb height rises currently occurring over CA , Mammoth Lakes high temps will climb into the low 70s this weekend with overnight lows in the upper 30 and low 40s. It will be a great weekend for all outdoor activities, especially with the absence of any significant wind.  Little change in the weather is expected other than some cloudiness this Sunday/Ngt.   The next significant change will bring mainly high clouds, (Wave Clouds) to our area next Thursday and Friday along with Moderate to strong Winds. It this point, some ensemble members are showing a slight chance of showers……Update later.

 

Climo:

There are some hints of the Continental high developing for the first time this year, as early as the end of this month but more likely by mid June.  Although Father’s Day is climatically the last freeze in the Mammoth area, this year it may come a bit earlier….

The 90 day outlook for the Summer Months of June July and August suggests a more active Monsoon season over AZ with above normal rainfall. Southern NV may be included somewhat, as well as the Southern and South Central Sierra according to the EURO seasonal forecasts….

 

ENSO;

The latest information from the CPC is that odds are good the La Niña conditions will continue through the Summer and to a lesser degree through the Fall.  With that said, as we move beyond the Spring barrier for ENSO forecasting, there is beginning to show up a bias toward ENSO neutral conditions by January 2023. See graphic below

If and this is a big if, ENSO neutral conditions develop during Jan, Feb and March, that may turn the pattern in the west, wet at some point, as the incidences of AR’s tend to increase when the MJO is in favorable phase space 7/8 during ENSO 3.4 region SSTAS are between -.5C and +.5C

There is likely to be some strong hints if we are moving toward ENSO Neutral conditions as there would be increasing MJO activity along with Kelvin wave action pushing warmer waters underneath the surface through the Central Pacific this Summer and or Fall.

Here is the latest Update from the IRI/CPC a few days ago.  https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Although La Nina is favored, the graphics from both IRI and the CFSv2 suggest the possibility of ENSO becoming Neutral by years end.

 

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………:-)