6/30/2022

 

After a rather cool breezy Fourth of July Holiday and weekend, a warming trend will begin by the middle of next week and by the following weekend, warmer than normal temps and much less wind is expected. The forecast model that is most consistent is the GFS Extended with the main height anomaly of 600DM at 500mb confined to Utah, Wyoming and Colorado Friday and Saturday, the 8th and 9th. This keeps the main heat wave to the east of the eastern sierra,  However, it will still be plenty warm with highs pushing into the 80s in Mammoth by weeks end.

 

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A cooling trend begins Wednesday this week as a couple of short waves affect Mammoth Weather. The first is currently ejecting through Washington State.   Although there won’t be much of any cooling from it today this far south, the winds will definitely be noticeable this afternoon into Wednesday. The NWS has issued a Lake Wind Advisory for area lakes this afternoon for SW gusts to 35 MPH.  It will continue to be breezy Wednesday with slightly cooler temps.

Expect less wind Thursday as temps continue to slowly lower to the mid 70s. Lows at night will be in the 30s and 40s…

The holiday weekend has a more significant Trof that deepens from the NW for California. Although it is a dry pattern, it will be associated with plenty of wind. (Details to be determined later this week) This trof will complete some 10+ degrees of cooling by July 4th. The highs in Mammoth July 4th are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. Lows will dip into the 30s early Tuesday AM.

Longer range outlook has what looks to be a major heat wave for California by the weekend following July 4th.  The GFS extended has the 500mb upper high’s 600DM more to the east which would import a ton of Monsoon moisture for a very humid heat wave for Southern CA and a higher possibility of Thunderstorms for the high country. The ECMWF has the 500mb Upper High over CA for a dryer hotter pattern. Were talking upper 80s to near 90 in Mammoth should the ECMWF work out that weekend and with highs only in the 80s with the GFS with Thunderstorms.   This heat event begins about the 7th and goes through the 14th. Incidentally, this is the climatological hottest period of the year with the 10th of July, being Bishop’s hottest day of 110, set back in 2002.

 

Will update later as we get closer to the weekend of the 10th heat event for the state.