Brought to you by Howard Sheckter
Archive for June, 2022
Expect a Gradual Cooling Trend this week through July 4th…..The holiday will be quite breezy especially Sunday and July 4th…..Then get ready for a major heatwave the following weekend as WX Maps have the dreaded 600 DM Upper High over the west!
Tuesday June 28, 2022
6/30/2022
After a rather cool breezy Fourth of July Holiday and weekend, a warming trend will begin by the middle of next week and by the following weekend, warmer than normal temps and much less wind is expected. The forecast model that is most consistent is the GFS Extended with the main height anomaly of 600DM at 500mb confined to Utah, Wyoming and Colorado Friday and Saturday, the 8th and 9th. This keeps the main heat wave to the east of the eastern sierra, However, it will still be plenty warm with highs pushing into the 80s in Mammoth by weeks end.
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A cooling trend begins Wednesday this week as a couple of short waves affect Mammoth Weather. The first is currently ejecting through Washington State. Although there won’t be much of any cooling from it today this far south, the winds will definitely be noticeable this afternoon into Wednesday. The NWS has issued a Lake Wind Advisory for area lakes this afternoon for SW gusts to 35 MPH. It will continue to be breezy Wednesday with slightly cooler temps.
Expect less wind Thursday as temps continue to slowly lower to the mid 70s. Lows at night will be in the 30s and 40s…
The holiday weekend has a more significant Trof that deepens from the NW for California. Although it is a dry pattern, it will be associated with plenty of wind. (Details to be determined later this week) This trof will complete some 10+ degrees of cooling by July 4th. The highs in Mammoth July 4th are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. Lows will dip into the 30s early Tuesday AM.
Longer range outlook has what looks to be a major heat wave for California by the weekend following July 4th. The GFS extended has the 500mb upper high’s 600DM more to the east which would import a ton of Monsoon moisture for a very humid heat wave for Southern CA and a higher possibility of Thunderstorms for the high country. The ECMWF has the 500mb Upper High over CA for a dryer hotter pattern. Were talking upper 80s to near 90 in Mammoth should the ECMWF work out that weekend and with highs only in the 80s with the GFS with Thunderstorms. This heat event begins about the 7th and goes through the 14th. Incidentally, this is the climatological hottest period of the year with the 10th of July, being Bishop’s hottest day of 110, set back in 2002.
Will update later as we get closer to the weekend of the 10th heat event for the state.
Cold Breezy weekend….But the last! Summer arrives this Tuesday and the Summertime Thunder starts the day after!
Sunday June 19, 2022
Latest ECMWF 12z run today Fathers Day has the cold upper trof that has been bringing below normal temps to Mono County and freeze conditions at night, moving out today. Another chilly day today is in process and another freeze tonight likely, at least for a few areas. Rapid warming is expected to begin Monday into Tuesday.
Again this is Winters last gasp!! The Strong Troughs of Springs are done for CA!!
Welcome to Summer this Tuesday! Longest day of the year!
First discussion for Summer;
Tropical storm Blas is weakening rapidly SSW off Cabo. Meanwhile a weak Trof will split off from the westerlies and form a weak upper level low late Tuesday off the Central CA coast near Paso Robles. Moisture from the remnant’s of Bals, spins up a subtropical jet with Mammoth, under the Front left Quad Wednesday with an active day of Thunder and lighting storms over the Sierra, both Wednesday and Thursday.. Please, all prey for no fires in the Sierra!!!!!!!!!!! If your going into the back country, be very aware of this possibility, especially over the weekend after the storms are gone and the weather really warms up and the forest dry’s out!
Main Message from this update is that Summer arrives Tuesday and that Summer weather along with it well into July and August!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)
Winters Last Gasps are on their way…..One this weekend and the very last Fathers Day……Thereafter….Continental high sets up for the Summer…..
Friday June 10, 2022
9:15 AM 6/16/2022
High temperatures reached the mid 70s in Mammoth Wednesday with similar highs expected today Thursday. A trough of low pressure was centered off the Oregon Coast this morning destined to dig through California over the weekend. Expect strong gusty winds developing later today and stronger winds in the 50 to 60MPH range for the Mammoth area Friday.
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The Dweebs are saying good by to the last of the migrating Trofs from the Gulf of AK over the next 10 days. One this weekend that will bring gusty winds and about 15 degrees of cooling by Monday. Then the last one that moves through about fathers Day. That one may bring the last frost to the high county, climatically right on time! Thereafter, the continental high sets up and all weather eyes will then be on SE flow, thunderstorms and hot temps for the Great Basin and Sierra!
Say good by to Winters Last Gasp as Summer is right on schedule!!
Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………………:-)
