Archive for October, 2022

2:20PM 11-1-22

Bullet Points..

1. Models have come in slightly wetter this afternoon.  Not that it will make a big difference.
2. Snowfall should start around 5:00PM in Mammoth
3. Longer range has the Euro with an IVT plume into our area,  IVT 300kg ((ms)) (small) but respectable AR Sunday, while the GFS it Monday AM.  Still a long way off.   But there is potential of a good base building storm!

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Happy All Hallows Eve! The Tricker Treaters should have no Ice to deal with this year. So pleasant strolling on the streets of the Trails……Although it will be a bit breezy.   Tomorrow, All Saints day, will be quite windy in town with advisory level winds especially later in the afternoon. Snowfall amounts are expected to be 6 to 9  inches over the upper elevations and some 4 to 6 inches in town by Wednesday Evening. The storm is a quick mover with modest over water TRJ for the Central Sierra, especially Southern Mono County.

Then next week will be quite fun to see what develops. The Models bring in a storm with the upper jet more to the north of us.  But at this juncture, this far out, no one should take a stab at this one yet!

Here are two interesting points about this upcoming pattern change for next week:

1. The MJO will be Phase 7/8 in the west central pacific. The teleconnections from the ECMWF in both Deterministic and Ensemble runs show an impressive -EPO. This is the Eastern Pacific Oscillation.  It tends to suppress the upper jet to the south. It is closed a high pressure aloft over AK.   The issue is, the teleconnection coincides with the RMM phase space 7/8 as suggested for this time frame around the 7th into the following week.
2. This also suggests the possibility of the development of an Atmospheric River(s) for the west coast.  Most likely in the Pacific NW but quite possibly for Northern CA and somewhat less for the Central Sierra.

This is just something to watch this week by keeping a weary eye on the Global Models mid-week into the following weekend. Will update later this week…..

Dr Howard the Dweebs…………………………..:-)

10/27/2022:

This mornings update shows both ECMWF and the GFS giving us a storm between the Tuesday and Thursday period.  The Key is how the phasing is going to take place over the western pacific with tropical storm energy.

In Constructive Phasing;  the Energy comes into the westerlies and greatly amplifies the down stream pattern and thus can give the west coast a good storm.

In Destructive Phasing; the energy from a tropical storm,  Zonal’s out the flow and the energy mainly affects the Pacific NW and Northern Rockies, Missing the Northern and Central Sierra.

More than half of the ensembles at this point suggest Constructive Phasing….

By the way, the CFS shows Destructive Phasing of the westerlies from this mornings output.   So the Dweebs are not real confident about this storm yet.

Stay Tuned….

10/26/2022

Just a quick update

I am less impressed now about Western PAC invest 93W today. Both GFS and ECMWF weakens it rapidly next week over the Western Pacific, so it is not expected to have much if any effect on our Eastern Pacific WX. Yes I have seen the latest GFS and its storm for our west coast for next Tue/Wed.   However, I am not buying into it with any major confidence at this time. The European does not has a significant storm for that period in time. So we’ll see how things develop over the next few days. What I do not like is the split in the jet stream coming off Asia next week. That tends to mess things up for storms in the Central Sierra. Also the MJO is in phase 7 the 1st week of November. That location of tropical forcing is usually not conducive for major snow producing systems in CA.

There is another system for that following weekend. However, it too looks like a dud at this time.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)

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It will be a pretty uneventful week weather wise in the high country. Expect seasonal temperatures with highs mostly in the mid 50s and lows in the 20s. Temps will be a bit milder this weekend with the chance of a few showers Sunday.

The upper jet is well to our north and the long wave Trof is over the northern portions of the west, like Canada and the Pacific NW. Late in the weekend there noes seem to be a bit more amplitude in the westerlies and so we may get a few showers between Saturday night and Sunday night. Night time lows over the weekend are expected to be a bit milder, like in the low 30s.

Of interest is Invest 93W.   Invest means investigate, so an area of investigative interest in this tropical low now located at approx. 135E and 10 North.

At this time there is only the potential that this system may “Constructively Phase with the westerlies next week. A lot will depend upon timing on when the system becomes extra tropical.  There will be news about this storm as it spins up into a Typhoon as it is forecasted to do. Affecting possibly the island of Japan next Tuesday the 1st or 2nd.  Depending upon what is going on with the westerlies, if it constructively phases, meaning gets picked up by a short wave Trof and builds a down stream ridge, our weather here in the sierra would be greatly affected!  Timing between the 5th and 7th of November.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………………:-)