October 5, 2022

The new European model seasonal forecast is now out.  It is calling for a wetter than normal winter for the northern and central sierra.  Remember, not all La Niña winters are dry for the central sierra.  The ECMWF showed wet for the upcoming winter in their August update, then backed off on the wetness for the central sierra in their September update. Now the model shows wet again in its October update. Usually the closer we get to winter, the better the accuracy.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…….

The 1st half of October is likely to continue the trend of above normal temperatures as the mean ridge position develops along the west coast this afternoon and slowly shifts to the Rockies week 2. High temperatures will average in the lower 70s the next 5 days then upper 60s, while lows at night average in the low 40s.  Both ECMWF AND GFS HINT at the next sensible change in the pattern about the middle of October as a cold upper low descends out of the GOA and brings the possibility of snowfall to the high country., not all La Niña