3:05 PM

Well….The NWS in Reno blew it on the winds down here in Mono County  As this is Wind Advisory criteria.  Winds have been gusting 50MPH to 60MPH at the Mammoth AP since 9:30 this morning.

Gusts in Mammoth have been 30 to 60 all day today in the Mammoth Meadow.

Come on Guys and Gals…. Please spend a bit more time on our area!! The Truckers and other high profile vehicles’ rely on the NWS information!


The Dweeber…..



Changes for Week 2:

The ECMWF ensembles the past few runs have back peddled a bit on the likelihood of more over water trajectory and thus the mid week system for next week is now shown to come in drier now, more like the GFS than the past few days.  Thus the previous discussion for yesterday in regards to the possibility of moderate amounts of snowfall for Southern Mono is much less likely now and have been removed from the current outlook period for our area. That System is now more like the one coming in this Saturday, a NW slider, bringing wind, cooling and some snow showers.


Lots of high clouds today due to a weak cut off low pressure system about 700 miles SW of Mammoth. These high cloud are not expected to affect the temps much during the daylight hours, with mid 60s still expected the next few days and lows in the mid 30s in town.

The latest 12Z deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF are very similar now with the Saturday weather system. Both show meager amounts of precipitation with just a dusting of snowfall in the area. Anywhere between a trace to a couple of inches Saturday Morning through Saturday afternoon.  However some 15 degrees of cooling is expected by Sunday. The question of wind is certainly going to be an issue now as the GFS and especially the Euro has quite the Down sloping signature developing Saturday along the Eastern Slopes. Wind advisories look like a good possibility Saturday morning and even the chance of a Wind Warning Northern County and especially Alpine County. Of course this is the NWS area of expertise and will leave the potential actuality’s to them for much later in the week.

Week 2 period:

After a break in the weather early next week, the ECMWF (Euro) is pretty consistent in bringing another moderate Trof into the Sierra, this time more from the west. This system is wetter and has much more over water trajectory.

However, the GFS has really backed off on that scenario for the middle of next week. Funny how those models can be so different at times!   Based upon MJO in Phase 6, the Laggs for October, and the ECMWF ensembles, which are very consistent, I am leaning with the ECMWF, for a decent storm the following Wednesday. One that could bring some 6 to 12 inches of snowfall to Mammoth Mt.

Areas like Kirkwood look to get much more with the EURO solution…..

More Later…..

Dr Howard and the Dweebs……………..:-)