2:20PM 11-1-22

Bullet Points..

  1. Models have come in slightly wetter this afternoon.  Not that it will make a big difference.
  2. Snowfall should start around 5:00PM in Mammoth
  3. Longer range has the Euro with an IVT plume into our area,  IVT 300kg ((ms)) (small) but respectable AR Sunday, while the GFS it Monday AM.  Still a long way off.   But there is potential of a good base building storm!

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Happy All Hallows Eve! The Tricker Treaters should have no Ice to deal with this year. So pleasant strolling on the streets of the Trails……Although it will be a bit breezy.   Tomorrow, All Saints day, will be quite windy in town with advisory level winds especially later in the afternoon. Snowfall amounts are expected to be 6 to 9  inches over the upper elevations and some 4 to 6 inches in town by Wednesday Evening. The storm is a quick mover with modest over water TRJ for the Central Sierra, especially Southern Mono County.

Then next week will be quite fun to see what develops. The Models bring in a storm with the upper jet more to the north of us.  But at this juncture, this far out, no one should take a stab at this one yet!

Here are two interesting points about this upcoming pattern change for next week:

  1. The MJO will be Phase 7/8 in the west central pacific. The teleconnections from the ECMWF in both Deterministic and Ensemble runs show an impressive -EPO. This is the Eastern Pacific Oscillation.  It tends to suppress the upper jet to the south. It is closed a high pressure aloft over AK.   The issue is, the teleconnection coincides with the RMM phase space 7/8 as suggested for this time frame around the 7th into the following week.
  2. This also suggests the possibility of the development of an Atmospheric River(s) for the west coast.  Most likely in the Pacific NW but quite possibly for Northern CA and somewhat less for the Central Sierra.

This is just something to watch this week by keeping a weary eye on the Global Models mid-week into the following weekend. Will update later this week…..

 

Dr Howard the Dweebs…………………………..:-)