Quick 11/29/2022 900pm update

Shows 00Z Wednesday GFS run wetter scenario again like earlier this morning, for the 2nd storm.  So 4 to 5 feet over the crest again possible by Monday.

700MB winds are Orthrogonal to the sierra both Thursday afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

GFS = Global Forecast System (American Global Model)

Z Times for PDT

00Z = 4:00PM

006Z = 10:00PM

12Z = 4:00AM

18Z =  10:00PM

ECMWF = Euro Model

ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation

AR= (Atmospheric River)and other usefull lnks to better understand this science


“The difference between mediocrity and genius is persistance and time” 




Updated GFS has 2nd system not as wet as first system. Will see  how the new 18Z ECMWF later today looks.   Thinking now is to trim back a bit Snowfall estimates for Southern Mono County, but not by a lot.  Between 3 to 4 feet over the crest seems a bit more reasonable. The Dweebs will see what the Euro run says, later today.  🙂

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Today system that pushed into the Great Basin has brought a return of below normal temperatures. The winds in town have abated somewhat as the front pushed through this afternoon. Surface pressures began to rise at 1:30PM. Winds earlier were recorded up to 45MPH. Tomorrow Tuesday will be cold with sunny skies. (Low 30s)

The next pattern change involves a couple of digging short wave trofs from the Eastern Gulf of AK. What is interesting as that there is a couple of waves in a rather weak southern branch of the westerlies, north of Hawaii, that the models are coupling with the polar jet.

Scripps from UCSD shows a couple of IVT surges; (Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT)) that are at the least weak with one of the models showing more of a moderate plume. Today’s 18Z GFS run is very encouraging, in bringing in a good precipitable water surge, later Thursday into Friday…..The Euro is similar.

What is especially interesting between the two models, is that they are consistent in the way they handle these two short waves. The 1st one passes through early Friday, the subsequent short-wave dives south further west, and thus has more over water trajectory as well as being able to lift that AR north again, for round two. So this is a rather complex system, but quite exciting in regards to the possibilities! Another issue worth mentioning is that the freezing level in this pattern is much lower than the one that brought 6 feet of snow over the crest with that last AR. This means that it would be all snow in town and possibly on highway 395 as well. preliminary guesstimates currently are some 3 to 5 feet of snow over the upper elevations, Thursday through Monday.  Will update the QPF this Wednesday PM.


Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)