2/26/23

Great News this AM….The Road is open to LA and most of All….The Sun is/was out!   Snow forecasts were right on with 4 to 4.5 feet on Mammoth Mt storm total. Temperatures were warming up today with highs approaching freezing. That’s a big difference compared to the past week!!

The next and may I add windy systems are moving in…Wind’s are increasing and Blizzard conditions will develop by this afternoon. Road closures are possible again, so if you have to be back to work Monday…Best to make haste and head south!.

2/27/23 7:30am update

The Next weather system will offer 3 short waves….So the long wave reloads….There are three impulses within the storms. Snowfalls of up to another 3 to 4 feet are expected in town and some 4 to 6 feet on Old Woolly by Wednesday afternoon.

What appear to be the last of the cold storms will move toward Mammoth later next weekend…..I say that as there is a strong Madden Julian Oscillation now forecasted by all Global Models. Below is an update graphic of its intensity in the RMM Phase Space. It is impressive!

As mentioned below, this Air Sea Coupled Phenomenon will likely modulate the westerlies toward Mid Month. The effect of this change is not completely known at this time. The pattern is likely to be associated with a closed Anti-Cyclone/Negative Phase EPO/WPO..  This will likely cause an extension of the East Asian Jet eastward toward the west coast. If the Closed High is centered far enough east, past the Dateline; A long wave trough will remain over the Eastern Gulf of AK and phase with the extended EAJ. In that case, expect a very significant AR or Pineapple Connection with the potential for very heavy precipitation reaching California between the 10th and 16th of March.  If the anticyclone sets up well west of the dateline, then we will ridge up and it will get warm with real spring weather. I think most folks would prefer the latter as we really do not want a warm wet or even cold AR hitting a 20+ foot snow pack!

In the meantime, the storms will remain cold with the current active pattern continuing tonight through mid afternoon Wednesday. Another cold storm is possible beginning next Saturday and Sunday after a dry Thursday and Friday

Stay Tuned…The Dweebs will have a better handle on the following weeks weather later this up coming week.

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Older Discuession below from the 24th:

A major Winter storm is in play for the Central and Southern Sierra. Snow is falling at about 2+ inches an hour in Mammoth Lakes. “As of this time”, highway 395 is closed north of Pearsonville to Independence; and Gorge Rd in Inyo County to Walker. Check with Cal Trans for the latest!  https://roads.dot.ca.gov/

(Note)  The Cal Trans Link above is getting a lot of traffic so keep trying as it is very busy!

The Owens Valley has moderate wind at the moment with Heavy Snowfall in many areas. Amounts expected generally will be 6 to 12 inches on the valley floor by Saturday night.  For the Town of Mammoth, The forecast is for between 2 to 3 feet in town and 3.5 to 4.5 feet on Mammoth Mt by Sunday AM. A new storm moves into Mono County Sunday night that will continue through Tuesday night.  Improving weather is expected Wednesday with Fair Weather expected Thursday and Friday.

Current Cold Pattern will be coming to an end for a while toward next weekend. According to the latest 12Z GFS deterministic model run this morning, there is a pattern change that looks to be taking place later next week or week after. Although there may be another storm later in that weekend, the pattern look drier after that following weekend.

Of some concern is what the MJO is forecasted to do toward and around the middle of March. I have posted the latest RMM Phase Space chart to show the MJOs strength as well as its location. It will be getting very amplified has it gets back into the RMM 7-8 area.   The MJO; “Madden Julian Oscillation” is supposed to be strong in this area toward mid March. It can force a “Pseudo El Nino effect” with higher heights in the PNA region, and sometimes, extend the East Asian Jet,  underneath a blocking high toward the west coast. At the least, the pattern over the far eastern pacific should become milder later week 2 into Week 3, with the absence of Arctic Air.  Milder weather could be just warmer or fair weather, or it could be milder and wet with storm’s associated with Atmospheric Rivers.

I will be watching with interest, what happens during that week 2 to week 3 period….

The Dweeber……….l👍

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Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)

2/21/23

Lee Vining just flushed out of the fog at 9:40 AM as winds came up.

Storms on track. Friday into Friday Night System will be biggest snowfall producer. GFS now has the Closed Low ejecting Through Southern CA instead of Baja Saturday afternoon and evening. This would create a Pattern of Upslope Saturday into the night. So another 3 to 6 inches of snow is possible during that time, leaving Sunday to be the Blue Bird Day. Tweet Tweet.

Snowfall Between today and Saturday night will be 10 to 20 inches in town and 20 to 30 inches over the upper elevations.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Afternoon looks to be a time with the least amount of snowfall, like Saturday PM (3 to 6 inches)

Outlook:

Blue Bird Day Sunday.

New Storm moves in Monday….

There will be several more systems with over-water trajectory and without any AR’s noted next week.

The Dweeber………………..:-)

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All the promise of large scale retrogression in the Hemi Pattern has backed off the next two weeks.  This means that storms will continue to be cold with light fluffy powder in moderate amounts. The longer range shows further retrogression week 3 toward the Middle of March, but the Dweebs are not biting on this yet, even though the MJO really touting it, as it reemerges into Phase 7 then 8.

The MJO has been successful enough for retrogression in getting the Long Wave Trof back over CA then west off shore. This will add to what is becoming one of the longest coldest winters in Eastern California in Memory. What is coming is nothing short of Misery for those that prefer traditional Sierra Weather vs Northern and Central Rockies type weather. However, some will be happy with traditional Rocky Mt Powder that might get kinda deep by Saturday AM. Snorkels anyone? The Dweeb in his younger years, remembers skiing the Big Burn at “Snowmass” in Aspen in 2+ feet of very light powder.  After a fall, that snow was hard to catch a breath in!

Back to the Meteorology, and after looking the 12Z GFS deterministic run for this week, as noted, this is true CPK air as the upper flow grabs some of the cold from the Hudson Bay PV as well as the NW Territories. If you have studied the weather in the Eastern US, you will know that they are becoming historically warm just as we are historically cold. As a note, we have had colder individual storms. However, the climatology of the persistence of cold is getting more and more notable in Mammoth for this winter.

This weeks active weather pattern begins tomorrow Tuesday. 1st with very strong winds as a stronger gradient is set up because of the Antecedent warmth ahead of a favorable Upper Jet Trajectory. As you can see below, the Arctic Ribbon pushes south through Mammoth Tuesday Evening in the 700MB chart and at 500MB the tap of CPK extends from well up in Canada! This is true modified Arctic Air!

700MB     Ribbon passing through Mammoth                                                                                500MB

Snowfall Amounts:

The west side of the Sierra is favored in the pattern for best precipitation.  Assuming that Snow to Water ratios are 15:1 through 4:00PM Wednesday Afternoon.  Amounts may be 6 to 10 inches over the crest and in town 3 to 5 inches of light fluffy snow from system number 1. System #2 will have more over water trajectory. It is slower moving as well. It is possible that the top of Mammoth Mt could get another 18 to 24 inches while in town 10 to 15 inches by early Saturday AM. This 2nd storm has the potential to bring the deepest light dry powder of the winter!  Don’t expect much more than another inch or two after Sunrise Saturday. For you outdoor enthusiast’s, the weather may offer a bit of a break this Saturday and Sunday in the storms.

There is another storm following. It is expected to begin Sunday night with another 1 to 2 feet possible by Tuesday evening. One again, this is another cold storm but possibly not as cold as the storms this week. After the early following week system, there looks to be a break Wednesday and Thursday before the possibility of a slightly milder wetter the following Friday. The not as cold and wetter scenario for the 3 and 4th is because of suggestion of further retrogression of the East PAC High,  which as of this point has failed to materialize, so not banking on it at this point.  There is a colder system for the 6th, 7th and 8th….But of course the further in time we go out the more the pattern is likely to change.  Below, look how crazy strong the MJO gets in Phase 7/8 toward the middle of March.   Not sure what is going to happen. But pretty scarry to the Dweebs….

MJO RMM