Turn on the lights….The Train of Winter Storms are over!!

Latest guidence shows a much weaker storm for Sunday night through mid-week with mostly wind and snow showers for the high country. Snowfall amounts 1 to 3 inches in Mammoth Monday through Tuesday.   It will be noted that this is a windy pattern for the high country beginning Saturday into next week. Snowfall totals will be mainly Sunday night through Monday…..Then showery thereafter into mid week.  It will be milder through Sunday then colder Monday into Wednesday.


Next unsettled period would be about mid month?

Dr Howard and the Dweebs………………..:-)


As we wrap up the end of March, the week two models become increasingly unreliable. As a case in point, the Deterministic GFS model from 00Z Thursday last night showed a two week total of 10 more inches of water up on the pass. Now this mormning, it is down to about 2 inches.

Tuesdays Tropical discuession from the CPC hinted at another MJO rising its head over the Indian Ocean and progressing to the Western PAC.  Looking at the RIMM charts, I am not so convinced. The tropical wave looks more like an Equatorial Rossby wave than an MJO.   The MJO developing is suggestive of the continuation of LA Nina pattern this WInter and the long wave Trof in the West and Upper Ridge in the East, IE more storms would be on the way for CA.

This mornings new 12Z GFS showed this next system for Sunday night followed by another Tuesday being the last significant system within the pattern that has been ongoing since early March. The double barreled storm has the possibility to bring another 1 to 2 feet over the crest Sunday night through Wednesday PM.  2 Feet over the crest would be enough to reach that crazy 900 inches mark over the Summit. (75 Feet)   At the moment it is 880 inches with the snow that fell this AM. The Main Lodge has recieved officialy 702 inches with possibly another inch this AM.

Getting back to the 12Z GFS this morning, it should be of note that the pattern across the pacific is pretty unstable from a week 2 perspective. The lastest run suggests the Eastern Pac High redeveloping west of the Dateline then retrogrades again to over Kamchutka, Russia by the 15th. This last Retrogression is very significant as the down stream wavelength suggests a long wave ridge setting up just off the west coast.  Giving some credeance to this all, the Kona Low near Kawaii in both global models, dissapates the low, and is absorbed by the westerlies.  The new 12Z ECMWF is still running. If it is in agreement and its trend suggests yes, then the Dweebs are calling for game over…  Now this is not to say that we might not have another storm or two later in April and May as well as a chilly Trof over the Great Basin, But the long over due end, to the series storms of the Great Winter of 2023 is one for the record books…

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………..:-)