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Finally some warmer temps this weekend….    However, the overall pattern is still one that shows a split flow pattern over the Eastern Pacific, as an excessive wave length exists from the central pacific trof/ridge pattern to the strong high pressure system dominating Central Canada.  The current split flow off shore, creates an active pattern “For June”,  across from Southern CA through the southern states through next Sunday. Another comment of interest is that the next system off the Southen CA coast stalls over that area Monday. Additionally, that low pressure systems create a lot of unstable air aloft over the Sierra, which creates a better chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday looks to be the best days for precip of the Sierra next week. Again, as mentioned several times this Spring, the Sierra above 8500 to 9000 feet still has a lot of snow cover. That fact inhibits convection and precip along the crest during times, without upper level forcing.

Longer Range:

There are some signs that the upper air anomalies near the dateline; (Low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south) will progress eastward next week. This would end the split flow pattern later next week for the Eastern Pacific and especially CA and the Sierra, but keep it going for the Mid West and South over the CONUS.  The longer range pattern suggests that a West NW flow aloft pattern may develop by next weekend which would be drier for the Sierra if it develops. Additionally, stronger NW flow may develop the following week would bring dry, breezy cooler weather that following week,  Beyond that timeframe, there are some ensembles that suggest, that the continental high will begin to develop around the Summer Solstice.  Of interest to most weather geeks is where that Continental high will develop. Will it be close to CA for record heat and moisture, or too far east over the desert southwest that allows weak upper trofing to keep our weather especially breezy and dry in the afternoon and cool. This will all be worked out over the next few weeks! One thing is for sure, the pattern Spring into Summer is nearing and El Nino is strengthening.

See the EL Nino Maps below: