QPF 6:00pm Update:

No Change….

1 to 3 in town and 3 to 6 over the crest Wednesday morning through Thursday morning…..

No Surprises this morning. This mornings 12z Tuesday WRF has the path of the upper low at 500mb tracking over the western slopes of the Central Sierra by early (21z) PM Wednesday. The Upper low at 700MB at the same time is about 60 miles inland from Monterrey. UVM begins to increase over the Mammoth area around 3:00am Wednesday as “the nose” of a 140knot upper jet up over the Oregon coast stretches due south along the Northern and Central CA coast. This produces the lift necessary to begin the action. Thereafter, the upper jet begins to round the base of the upper low later in the afternoon Wednesday eventually carrying the upper low just south of Las Vegas, Nv early Thursday morning.

Moisture at 700mb increases to 50% by 12z, then 75% by 15z then 90% by 18z Wednesday morning……..Thus snow will be likely for Mammoth Lakes late Wednesday morning through the evening hours. The 90% RH pool at 700mb shifts east of Mammoth after midnight and so snow showery weather is expected to begin after midnight Wednesday night with showers diminishing through the morning hours Thursday.  Sky’s will be partly cloudy Thursday afternoon then clearing over night….  the high temperature forecast for Mammoth on Wednesday is 38 degrees.

 

Outlook:

The pattern is set up with a series of short wave dropping SE from the Gulf of AK. Subsequent short waves will be dry for the Mammoth area as Sundays short wave has the upper jet cutting SE through the Pacific Northwest then clipping NE Nevada. This system will bring some NE flow and some minor cooling along to mammoth with a period of mild off shore flow for SC. The Surface high associated with the NE Flow is way up in Montana and does not move into NV,  or a stronger Santa Ana event would develop.

As a side note, there is a more significant upper trof that is being handled differently for the global models. It bears watching. will be into the eastern pacific by about the 15 of October. The models are all over the place on that one…….anything is possible…so stay tuned for updates on that system.

Climate:

RE: Earth-Sun-Climate Effects

Some interesting new articles from scientists thinking out of the box.

1. http://www.wnd.com/2013/10/climate-guru-puts-global-warming-on-ice/print/

2. http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2013/10/08/paper-solar-wind-linked-electrically-to-terrestrial-mid-latitude-atmospheric-pressure-variation/

3. http://people.duke.edu/~ns2002/pdf/EARTH_1890.pdf  (At least read abstract)