Tuesday PM Update:

12z model runs out with GFS still bullish with plenty of over water trajectory. 12z ECMWF has less over water buckling on its deterministic run than last night and yesterday. So it is not as wet. Will update as soon as the new 06z GFS run is finished….

 

Confidence still plenty good for a cold sierra snow storm, early next week….

 

The Dweeber……

 

Tuesday AM Update:

Confidence increases this morning for the set up of a major Sierra Snow Pattern that will begin Monday morning and continue much of next week. Last night’s 06Z GFS follows the trend of earlier runs of the ECMWF model.

If the weather works out a progged, this will be our Christmas Holiday set up for several feet of snow and a hard grueling week for the snow plowers in town……

The latest 06z GFS is actually showing more over water trajectory now for the pattern, and continues the pattern of heavy snowfall through much of next week……

I hear that reservations for the Christmas holidays in Town were off to a slower start….that should change rapidly as news get out about major snowfall in Mammoth Lakes arriving next week.

More Later……………………>>

 

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………:-)

 

Monday Night Update:

The new 00z Tuesday ECMWF is consistent with its previous run in developing a major Snow Storm for the Sierra Monday through Wednesday next week. As the pattern develops this weekend…..The upper high builds over the Alaskan Pan Handel Sunday Night to an astounding +4.1 Sigma ( Deviation from Climo). The Arctic Upper Low deepens as in moves down the coastline and by 06Z Wednesday the SDC is a whopping -4.0 Sigma!

There will be plenty of over water trajectory and upper jet support. If this all works out…a major snow pattern is in the cards from Tahoe south down the sierra beginning as early as Late Sunday night or Monday AM though Wednesday or Thursday AM.  The snow will be cold and fluffy with high Snow to Water Ratios.

WSFO’s may put out WSW over the Thanksgiving Holiday for the following week……

Typically forecast models underestimate the QPF with a system like this. Several feet are possible next week…….

Will Fine Tune in the days ahead………………………

 

The Dweeber………………………….:-)